Race polling · HOU-SC-1

SC-1 House polls 2026

Nancy Lacore (D) vs Jenny Costa Honeycutt (R). The polls in the poll average, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.

Poll averageR+1.3the polls’ average, each as published · same figure as the race page

Polls66 on file · 5 in the poll average · 1 not counted

Latest field dateOct 22Eligible polls: latest poll: 2026-10-22 (6 days old)

EditionOct 28the poll average and its weights as of this edition

The polls and the poll average

drag or tap for a day · tap a dot for its poll

Oct 28, 2026R+1.3today's poll average of 5 polls

poll in the average · area is its weight
trend through the counted polls · ends on today's average

The line is a trend, not the average as it stood each day: the same polls and weights, with each poll leaning in smoothly over the weeks before its date. It starts at the first counted poll and ends on today's average.

Data table

The poll average as the edition published it for each stretch of days, and the trend line drawn over the same days.
Days	Average as it stood	Trend line
Oct 28, 2026	R+1.3	R+1.3
Oct 22–Oct 27, 2026	R+1.3	R+1.3
Oct 4–Oct 21, 2026	R+2.4	R+2.4 to R+1.3
Oct 1–Oct 3, 2026	R+3.7	R+2.6 to R+2.4
Sep 10–Sep 30, 2026	R+1.3	R+1.3 to R+2.7
Jul 22–Sep 9, 2026	R+2.0	R+2.0 to R+1.3

In House races the forecast then counts a poll sponsored by a party or campaign at full weight and moves its margin 2 points against that party, which puts the average it reads at R+2.6.

Every poll on file · 6

newest added first

5 in the poll average · 1 shown, not counted

Pollster	Fielded	Sample	Result	Added	Weight	Source
●Public Policy PollingGeneral · House · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan	Oct 22, 2026	770 LV	D+2.0Nancy Lacore 47Jenny Honeycutt 45+1 other release	Oct 235d ago	0.70	Pollster post
●GQRGeneral · D sponsor · D partisan	Oct 4, 2026	400 LV	D+3.0Nancy Lacore 48Jenny Costa Honeycutt 45	Oct 13	0.41	Pollster post
●co/efficientGeneral	Oct 1, 2026	837 LV	R+6.0Jenny Costa Honeycutt 46Nancy Lacore 40Don't know 9Bill Reeside 4+1 other release	Oct 2	0.58	Poll release
●Public Policy PollingGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan	Sep 10, 2026	536 RV	R+1.0Jenny Costa Honeycutt 41Nancy Lacore 40+1 other release	Sep 16	0.36	Pollster post
●GQRGeneral · House · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan	Jul 22, 2026	400 LV	R+2.0Jenny Honeycutt 50Nancy Lacore 48+2 other releases	Aug 4	0.18	Poll release
Public Policy PollingGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan	Dec 6, 2025	645 LV	Mark Smith 39Mac Deford 36	Dec 17	not in the average	Poll document

Poll archive as of October 29, 2026. It can hold polls newer than the forecast; a poll listed here is not necessarily in it.

Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.