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FORECAST51 DAYS OUT
Race polling · HOU-PA-10

PA-10 House polls

Janelle Stelson (D) vs Scott Perry (R). The polls the model aggregates, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.

Adjusted aggregateD+3.0same figure as the race page
Polls33 recorded polls · 3 eligible for the aggregate · 3 with positive weight
Latest field dateApr 23Eligible polls: latest poll: 2026-04-23 (143 days old)
EditionSep 13weights and corrections as of this edition

The polls the model reads

hover, tap or Tab to any poll
last 30 daysR+5EVEND+5D+10Jul ’25OctJan ’26AprJul
  • counted poll · area is its model weight
  • weight exactly zero · shown, not counted
  • poll trend · smoothed across nearby polls, larger and non-partisan ones count more · the recent end firms up as polls arrive
  • published average
  • 30 days before this edition

Every poll on file · 3

newest first

3 in the aggregate · 0 shown, not counted

PollsterFieldedAddedSampleResultWeightSource
Normington, Petts & AssociatesGeneral · House · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan400 RVJanelle Stetson 51Scott Perry 45+1 other release0.002Poll document
Public Policy PollingGeneral · House · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan549 RVJanelle Stelson 48Scott Perry 44+1 other release0.000Poll release
Public Policy PollingGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan559 RVJanelle Stelson 46Scott Perry 43Don't know 11+1 other release0 · not countedPoll document

Archive source date 2026-09-13. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.

Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.