PA-1 House polls 2026
Bob Harvie (D) vs Brian Fitzpatrick (R). The polls in the poll average, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.
The polls and the poll average
drag or tap for a day · tap a dot for its pollOct 28, 2026R+1.1today's poll average of 8 polls
- poll in the average · area is its weight
- trend through the counted polls · ends on today's average
The line is a trend, not the average as it stood each day: the same polls and weights, with each poll leaning in smoothly over the weeks before its date. It starts at the first counted poll and ends on today's average.
Data table
| Days | Average as it stood | Trend line |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2026 | R+1.1 | R+1.1 |
| Oct 23–Oct 27, 2026 | R+1.1 | R+1.1 |
| Oct 22, 2026 | R+1.6 | R+1.1 |
| Oct 8–Oct 21, 2026 | R+3.2 | R+3.2 to R+1.2 |
| Sep 14–Oct 7, 2026 | R+5.1 | R+5.1 to R+3.2 |
| Aug 23–Sep 13, 2026 | R+2.6 | R+2.6 to R+5.1 |
| Aug 9–Aug 22, 2026 | R+4.2 | R+4.2 to R+2.6 |
| Mar 22–Aug 8, 2026 | R+5.1 | R+5.1 to R+4.2 |
| Oct 11–Mar 21, 2026 | Even | Even to R+5.0 |
In House races the forecast then counts a poll sponsored by a party or campaign at full weight and moves its margin 2 points against that party, which puts the average it reads at R+2.2.
Every poll on file · 8
newest added first8 in the poll average
| Pollster | Fielded | Sample | Result | Added | Weight | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ●RedBox ResearchGeneral · D sponsor · D partisan | 733 LV | TiedBob Harvie 46Brian Fitzpatrick 46 | 12h ago | 0.70 | Poll release | |
| ●The New York Times/Siena CollegeGeneral | 400 LV | D+2.4Bob Harvie 48.26Brian Fitzpatrick 45.83Don't know 5.92Someone else 0 | 4d ago | 0.51 | News coverage | |
| ●Global Strategy GroupGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 1,032 LV | TiedBrian Fitzpatrick 46Bob Harvie 46Don't know 8 | 0.69 | News coverage | ||
| ●Public Opinion StrategiesGeneral · REP sponsor · REP partisan | 400 RV | R+9.0Brian Fitzpatrick 51Bob Harvie 42 | 0.33 | Pollster post | ||
| ●GQRGeneral · House · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 400 LV | R+1.0Brian Fitzpatrick 49Bob Harvie 48 | 0.25 | Pollster post | ||
| ●Global Strategy GroupGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 500 LV | R+4.0Brian Fitzpatrick 47Bob Harvie 43 | 0.24 | Poll release | ||
| ●Global Strategy GroupGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 400 LV | R+6.0Brian Fitzpatrick 48Bob Harvie 42 | 0.04 | Poll release | ||
| ●Public Policy PollingGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 585 LV | TiedBrian Fitzpatrick 41Bob Harvie 41Don't know 19 | 0.01 | News coverage |
Poll archive as of October 29, 2026. It can hold polls newer than the forecast; a poll listed here is not necessarily in it.
Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.