Race polling · HOU-PA-8

PA-8 House polls 2026

Paige Cognetti (D) vs Rob Bresnahan Jr. (R). The polls in the poll average, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.

Poll averageD+3.3the polls’ average, each as published · same figure as the race page

Polls66 on file · 5 in the poll average · 1 not counted

Latest field dateOct 23Eligible polls: latest poll: 2026-10-23 (6 days old)

EditionOct 28the poll average and its weights as of this edition

The polls and the poll average

drag or tap for a day · tap a dot for its poll

Oct 28, 2026D+3.3today's poll average of 5 polls

poll in the average · area is its weight
not counted · shown, never moves the line
trend through the counted polls · ends on today's average
left of the break: 1 earlier poll, not on the time axis

The line is a trend, not the average as it stood each day: the same polls and weights, with each poll leaning in smoothly over the weeks before its date. It starts at the first counted poll and ends on today's average.

Data table

The poll average as the edition published it for each stretch of days, and the trend line drawn over the same days.
Days	Average as it stood	Trend line
Oct 28, 2026	D+3.3	D+3.3
Oct 23–Oct 27, 2026	D+3.3	D+3.3
Oct 22, 2026	D+3.5	D+3.3
Oct 14–Oct 21, 2026	D+3.1	D+3.3
Jun 23–Oct 13, 2026	D+1.5	D+1.5 to D+3.2
Jun 11–Jun 22, 2026	D+1.0	D+1.0 to D+1.5

In House races the forecast then counts a poll sponsored by a party or campaign at full weight and moves its margin 2 points against that party, which puts the average it reads at D+2.4.

Every poll on file · 6

newest added first

5 in the poll average · 1 shown, not counted

Pollster	Fielded	Sample	Result	Added	Weight	Source
●RedBox ResearchGeneral · D sponsor · D partisan	Oct 23, 2026	696 LV	D+3.0Paige Cognetti 49Rob Bresnahan Jr. 46	Oct 2813h ago	0.68	Poll release
●The New York Times/Siena CollegeGeneral	Oct 22, 2026	402 LV	D+4.1Paige Cognetti 50.53Rob Bresnahan Jr. 46.48Don't know 3Someone else 0	Oct 254d ago	0.51	News coverage
●Emerson CollegeGeneral	Oct 14, 2026	396 LV	D+4.0Paige Cognetti 52Rob Bresnahan Jr. 48	Oct 226d ago	0.46	Pollster post
●Lake Research PartnersGeneral · House · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan	Jun 23, 2026	400 LV	D+2.0Paige Cognetti 47Rob Bresnahan 45+1 other release	Jul 20	0.13	Poll release
●Impact ResearchGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan	Jun 11, 2026	500 LV	D+1.0Paige Cognetti 46Rob Bresnahan Jr. 45Don't know 9	Jun 24	0.12	Poll release
Public Policy PollingGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan	Aug 28, 2025	615 RV	D+2.0Paige Cognetti 45Rob Bresnahan Jr. 43Don't know 13	Sep 2	0 · not counted	Poll document

Poll archive as of October 29, 2026. It can hold polls newer than the forecast; a poll listed here is not necessarily in it.

Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.