PA-1 House polls
Bob Harvie (D) vs Brian Fitzpatrick (R). The polls the model aggregates, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.
Adjusted aggregateR+3.4same figure as the race page
Polls44 recorded polls · 4 eligible for the aggregate · 4 with positive weight
Latest field dateAug 23Eligible polls: latest poll: 2026-08-23 (21 days old)
EditionSep 13weights and corrections as of this edition
The polls the model reads
hover, tap or Tab to any poll- counted poll · area is its model weight
- weight exactly zero · shown, not counted
- poll trend · smoothed across nearby polls, larger and non-partisan ones count more · the recent end firms up as polls arrive
- published average
- 30 days before this edition
Every poll on file · 4
newest first4 in the aggregate · 0 shown, not counted
| Pollster | Fielded | Added | Sample | Result | Weight | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ●GQRGeneral · House · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 400 LV | Brian Fitzpatrick 49Bob Harvie 48 | 0.195 | Pollster post | ||
| ●Global Strategy GroupGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 500 LV | Brian Fitzpatrick 47Bob Harvie 43 | 0.087 | Poll release | ||
| ●Global Strategy GroupGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 400 LV | Brian Fitzpatrick 48Bob Harvie 42 | 0.001 | Poll release | ||
| ●Public Policy PollingGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 585 LV | Brian Fitzpatrick 41Bob Harvie 41Don't know 19 | 0.000 | News coverage |
Archive source date 2026-09-13. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.