OH-15 House polls 2026
Don Leonard (D) vs Mike Carey (R). The polls in the poll average, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.
The polls and the poll average
drag or tap for a day · tap a dot for its pollOct 28, 2026D+0.2today's poll average of 4 polls
- poll in the average · area is its weight
- trend through the counted polls · ends on today's average
The line is a trend, not the average as it stood each day: the same polls and weights, with each poll leaning in smoothly over the weeks before its date. It starts at the first counted poll and ends on today's average.
Data table
| Days | Average as it stood | Trend line |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2026 | D+0.2 | D+0.2 |
| Oct 12–Oct 27, 2026 | D+0.2 | D+0.2 |
| Sep 24–Oct 11, 2026 | R+1.6 | R+1.6 to D+0.2 |
| Aug 9–Sep 23, 2026 | R+4.4 | R+4.4 to R+1.6 |
| Jun 25–Aug 8, 2026 | R+5.0 | R+5.0 to R+4.4 |
In House races the forecast then counts a poll sponsored by a party or campaign at full weight and moves its margin 2 points against that party, which puts the average it reads at R+1.8.
Every poll on file · 4
newest added first4 in the poll average
| Pollster | Fielded | Sample | Result | Added | Weight | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ●Hart Research AssociatesGeneral · House · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 503 LV | D+3.0Don Leonard 48Mike Carey 45+1 other release | 7d ago | 0.51 | Pollster post | |
| ●Hart Research AssociatesGeneral · House · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 500 LV | D+1.0Don Leonard 46Mike Carey 45+1 other release | 0.41 | Pollster post | ||
| ●Hart Research AssociatesGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 401 LV | R+4.0Mike Carey 41Don Leonard 37Brennan Barrington 10 | 0.22 | News coverage | ||
| ●Hart Research AssociatesGeneral · House · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 550 LV | R+5.0Mike Carey 45Don Leonard 40Brennan Barrington 3+1 other release | 0.15 | Poll release |
Poll archive as of October 29, 2026. It can hold polls newer than the forecast; a poll listed here is not necessarily in it.
Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.