OH-9 House polls 2026
Marcy Kaptur (D) vs Derek Merrin (R). The polls in the poll average, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.
Poll averageD+3.5the polls’ average, each as published · same figure as the race page
Polls44 on file · 3 in the poll average · 1 not counted
Latest field dateOct 23Eligible polls: latest poll: 2026-10-23 (5 days old)
EditionOct 28the poll average and its weights as of this edition
The poll average
3 polls countedThe poll average, D+3.5, is of three polls, which run from R+4.0 to D+6.0. That is too few to draw a trend through, so they are listed below, each with its weight.
In House races the forecast then counts a poll sponsored by a party or campaign at full weight and moves its margin 2 points against that party, which puts the average it reads at D+1.7.
Every poll on file · 4
newest added first3 in the poll average · 1 shown, not counted
| Pollster | Fielded | Sample | Result | Added | Weight | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ●RedBox ResearchGeneral · D sponsor · D partisan | 858 LV | D+6.0Marcy Kaptur 49Derek Merrin 43 | 12h ago | 0.75 | Poll release | |
| DCCC Targeting and Analytics DepartmentGeneral · House · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 481 LV | TiedMarcy Kaptur 48Derek Merrin 48 | counted once · listed twice | Poll release | ||
| ●DCCC Targeting TeamGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 481 LV | TiedDerek Merrin 48Marcy Kaptur 48 | 0.40 | Poll release | ||
| ●McLaughlin & AssociatesGeneral · REP sponsor · REP partisan | 400 LV | R+4.0Derek Merrin 47Marcy Kaptur 43Don't know 7David Gedert 3 | 0.06 | Poll release |
Poll archive as of October 29, 2026. It can hold polls newer than the forecast; a poll listed here is not necessarily in it.
Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.