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FORECAST55 DAYS OUT
Race polling · HOU-NY-21

NY-21 House polls

Blake Gendebien (D) vs Anthony Constantino (R). The polls the model aggregates, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.

Adjusted aggregateR+5.2same figure as the race page
Polls44 recorded polls · 4 eligible for the aggregate · 4 with positive weight
Latest field dateSep 2Eligible polls: latest poll: 2026-09-02 (7 days old)
EditionSep 9weights and corrections as of this edition

The polls the model reads

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last 30 daysR+15R+10R+5EVEND+5Jun ’26JulAugSep
  • counted poll · area is its model weight
  • weight exactly zero · shown, not counted
  • trailing 30-day average
  • published average
  • 30 days before this edition

Every poll on file · 4

newest first

4 in the aggregate · 0 shown, not counted

PollsterFieldedSampleResultWeightSource
Impact ResearchGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan500 LVAnthony Constantino 47Blake Gendebien 44Don't know 90.235News coverage
J.L. PartnersGeneral500 LVAnthony Constantino 53Blake Gendebien 40Don't know 7+1 other release0.235News coverage
SurveyUSAGeneral612 LVBlake Gendebien 43Anthony Constantino 39Don't know 13Chris Schmidt 5+1 other release0.244Poll release
Impact ResearchGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan500 LVAnthony Constantino 45Blake Gendebien 44Don't know 110.011News coverage

Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.

Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.