NY-21 House polls
Blake Gendebien (D) vs Anthony Constantino (R). The polls in the poll average, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.
The polls and the poll average
drag or tap for a day · tap a dot for its pollOct 23, 2026R+1.8today's poll average of 8 polls
- poll in the average · area is its weight
- trend through the counted polls · ends on today's average
The line is a trend, not the average as it stood each day: the same polls and weights, with each poll leaning in smoothly over the weeks before its date. It starts at the first counted poll and ends on today's average.
Data table
| Days | Average as it stood | Trend line |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | R+1.8 | R+1.8 |
| Oct 13–Oct 22, 2026 | R+1.8 | R+1.8 |
| Oct 6–Oct 12, 2026 | R+2.0 | R+1.7 to R+1.8 |
| Oct 4–Oct 5, 2026 | R+4.0 | R+1.9 to R+1.8 |
| Sep 10–Oct 3, 2026 | R+4.1 | R+4.1 to R+2.1 |
| Sep 2–Sep 9, 2026 | R+3.8 | R+3.9 to R+4.1 |
| Aug 17–Sep 1, 2026 | R+3.9 | R+3.9 |
| Aug 8–Aug 16, 2026 | D+2.6 | D+0.1 to R+3.8 |
| May 31–Aug 7, 2026 | R+1.0 | R+1.0 to D+0.8 |
The forecast then counts a poll sponsored by a party or campaign at full weight and moves its margin 2 points against that party, which puts the average it reads at R+2.8.
Every poll on file · 8
newest first8 in the poll average
| Pollster | Fielded | Sample | Result | Added | Weight | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ●Public Policy PollingGeneral · House · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 613 LV | R+2.0Anthony Constantino 46Blake Gendebien 44+1 other release | 3d ago | 0.60 | Pollster post | |
| ●Siena UniversityGeneral | 496 LV | D+4.0Blake Gendebien 46Anthony Constantino 42Don't know 8Chris Schmidt 5Someone else 0 | 0.50 | Poll release | ||
| ●Impact ResearchGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 500 LV | R+3.0Anthony Constantino 48Blake Gendebien 45 | 0.49 | Poll release | ||
| ●Public Policy PollingGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 557 RV | R+13.0Generic Republican 53Generic Democrat 40+1 other release | 0.39 | Pollster post | ||
| ●Impact ResearchGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 500 LV | R+3.0Anthony Constantino 47Blake Gendebien 44Don't know 9 | 0.34 | News coverage | ||
| ●J.L. PartnersGeneral | 500 LV | R+13.0Anthony Constantino 53Blake Gendebien 40Don't know 7 | 0.28 | News coverage | ||
| ●SurveyUSAGeneral | 612 LV | D+4.0Blake Gendebien 43Anthony Constantino 39Don't know 13Chris Schmidt 5 | 0.28 | Poll release | ||
| ●Impact ResearchGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 500 LV | R+1.0Anthony Constantino 45Blake Gendebien 44Don't know 11 | 0.11 | News coverage |
Archive source date 2026-10-24. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.