Race polling · HOU-NY-17

NY-17 House polls 2026

Cait Conley (D) vs Mike Lawler (R). The polls in the poll average, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.

Poll averageD+0.2the polls’ average, each as published · same figure as the race page

Polls66 on file · 5 in the poll average · 1 not counted

Latest field dateOct 23Eligible polls: latest poll: 2026-10-23 (5 days old)

EditionOct 28the poll average and its weights as of this edition

The polls and the poll average

drag or tap for a day · tap a dot for its poll

Oct 28, 2026D+0.2today's poll average of 5 polls

poll in the average · area is its weight
trend through the counted polls · ends on today's average

The line is a trend, not the average as it stood each day: the same polls and weights, with each poll leaning in smoothly over the weeks before its date. It starts at the first counted poll and ends on today's average.

Data table

The poll average as the edition published it for each stretch of days, and the trend line drawn over the same days.
Days	Average as it stood	Trend line
Oct 28, 2026	D+0.2	D+0.2
Oct 23–Oct 27, 2026	D+0.2	D+0.2
Sep 30–Oct 22, 2026	R+0.7	R+0.7 to D+0.2
Sep 29, 2026	D+0.3	R+0.7
Jul 22–Sep 28, 2026	R+1.4	R+1.4 to R+0.7
Jul 1–Jul 21, 2026	D+6.0	D+6.0 to R+1.3

In House races the forecast then counts a poll sponsored by a party or campaign at full weight and moves its margin 2 points against that party, which puts the average it reads at R+0.2.

Every poll on file · 6

newest added first

5 in the poll average · 1 shown, not counted

Pollster	Fielded	Sample	Result	Added	Weight	Source
●RedBox ResearchGeneral · D sponsor · D partisan	Oct 23, 2026	726 LV	D+2.0Cait Conley 48Mike Lawler 46	Oct 2813h ago	0.69	Poll release
●Emerson CollegeGeneral	Sep 29, 2026	400 LV	D+2.3Cait Conley 47.9Mike Lawler 45.6Don't know 6.5	Oct 15	0.39	Poll release
●McLaughlin & AssociatesGeneral · REP sponsor · REP partisan	Sep 30, 2026	400 LV	R+3.0Mike Lawler 50Cait Conley 47Don't know 3	Oct 2	0.39	News coverage
●co/efficientGeneral	Jul 22, 2026	1,292 LV	R+5.0Mike Lawler 50Cait Conley 45Don't know 5	Jul 23	0.32	Poll document
Impact ResearchGeneral · House · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan	Feb 17, 2026	500 LV	D+5.0Dem 44Rep 39+1 other release	Jul 20	tests a different matchup	Poll document
●FM3 ResearchGeneral · House · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan	Jul 1, 2026	509 LV	D+6.0Cait Conley 51Mike Lawler 45	Jul 8	0.16	Poll release

Poll archive as of October 29, 2026. It can hold polls newer than the forecast; a poll listed here is not necessarily in it.

Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.