Race polling · HOU-NE-1

NE-1 House polls 2026

Chris Backemeyer (D) vs Mike Flood (R). The polls in the poll average, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.

Poll averageR+0.7the polls’ average, each as published · same figure as the race page

Polls44 on file · 4 in the poll average

Latest field dateOct 20Eligible polls: latest poll: 2026-10-20 (8 days old)

EditionOct 28the poll average and its weights as of this edition

The polls and the poll average

drag or tap for a day · tap a dot for its poll

Oct 28, 2026R+0.7today's poll average of 4 polls

poll in the average · area is its weight
trend through the counted polls · ends on today's average

The line is a trend, not the average as it stood each day: the same polls and weights, with each poll leaning in smoothly over the weeks before its date. It starts at the first counted poll and ends on today's average.

Data table

The poll average as the edition published it for each stretch of days, and the trend line drawn over the same days.
Days	Average as it stood	Trend line
Oct 28, 2026	R+0.7	R+0.7
Oct 20–Oct 27, 2026	R+0.7	R+0.7
Sep 3–Oct 19, 2026	R+0.4	R+0.4 to R+0.7
May 19–Sep 2, 2026	R+7.6	R+7.6 to R+0.4
May 11–May 18, 2026	R+7.0	R+7.4 to R+7.6

In House races the forecast then counts a poll sponsored by a party or campaign at full weight and moves its margin 2 points against that party, which puts the average it reads at R+2.6.

Every poll on file · 4

newest added first

4 in the poll average

Pollster	Fielded	Sample	Result	Added	Weight	Source
●Public Policy PollingGeneral · House · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan	Oct 20, 2026	536 LV	R+1.0Mike Flood 46Chris Backemeyer 45+1 other release	Oct 217d ago	0.57	Pollster post
●Global Strategy GroupGeneral · House · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan	Sep 3, 2026	600 LV	D+4.0Chris Backemeyer 49Mike Flood 45+1 other release	Oct 15	0.35	Poll document
●Tavern ResearchGeneral · D sponsor · D partisan	May 19, 2026	1,079 LV	R+8.0Mike Flood 41Chris Backemeyer 33	Jul 29	0.14	Poll document
●Zenith ResearchGeneral · House	May 11, 2026	371 LV	R+7.0Mike Flood 45Chris Backemeyer 38+2 other releases	Jul 20	0.08	Pollster post

Poll archive as of October 29, 2026. It can hold polls newer than the forecast; a poll listed here is not necessarily in it.

Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.