MT-1 House polls 2026
Sam Forstag (D) vs Aaron Flint (R). The polls in the poll average, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.
The polls and the poll average
drag or tap for a day · tap a dot for its pollOct 28, 2026D+0.6today's poll average of 9 polls
- poll in the average · area is its weight
- trend through the counted polls · ends on today's average
The line is a trend, not the average as it stood each day: the same polls and weights, with each poll leaning in smoothly over the weeks before its date. It starts at the first counted poll and ends on today's average.
Data table
| Days | Average as it stood | Trend line |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2026 | D+0.6 | D+0.6 |
| Oct 23–Oct 27, 2026 | D+0.6 | D+0.6 |
| Oct 14–Oct 22, 2026 | D+1.5 | D+1.2 to D+0.7 |
| Sep 24–Oct 13, 2026 | D+0.6 | D+0.6 to D+1.3 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | D+0.9 | D+0.6 |
| Sep 10–Sep 22, 2026 | D+0.1 | D+0.1 to D+0.6 |
| Sep 7–Sep 9, 2026 | R+1.3 | Even to D+0.1 |
| Jun 25–Sep 6, 2026 | R+1.7 | R+1.7 to R+0.1 |
| May 5–Jun 24, 2026 | R+5.0 | R+5.0 to R+1.7 |
In House races the forecast then counts a poll sponsored by a party or campaign at full weight and moves its margin 2 points against that party, which puts the average it reads at R+0.6.
Every poll on file · 11
newest added first9 in the poll average · 2 shown, not counted
| Pollster | Fielded | Sample | Result | Added | Weight | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ●RedBox ResearchGeneral · D sponsor · D partisan | 754 LV | R+2.0Aaron Flint 48Sam Forstag 46 | 12h ago | 0.71 | Poll release | |
| ●Emerson CollegeGeneral · House | 329 LV | D+4.0Sam Forstag 50Aaron Flint 46 | 7d ago | 0.42 | Pollster post | |
| ●Public Policy PollingGeneral · House · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 541 LV | D+3.0Sam Forstag 48Aaron Flint 45+1 other release | 7d ago | 0.54 | Pollster post | |
| ●American Pulse Research & PollingGeneral · House | 314 LV | R+0.5Aaron Flint 45.9Sam Forstag 45.4Nick Sheedy 5.4+1 other release | 0.33 | Poll release | ||
| ●Impact ResearchGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 500 LV | D+3.0Sam Forstag 47Aaron Flint 44Don't know 7Nick Sheedy 2 | 0.41 | Poll document | ||
| ●Public Policy PollingGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 536 RV | D+2.0Sam Forstag 45Aaron Flint 43+1 other release | 0.36 | Pollster post | ||
| ●Rutgers-EagletonGeneral | 375 RV | R+1.0Aaron Flint 42Sam Forstag 41Don't know/Someone else 9Nick Sheedy 5Would not vote 2 | 0.29 | Poll release | ||
| ●Impact ResearchGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 500 LV | TiedAaron Flint 44Sam Forstag 44Don't know 6Tim Sheehy 5 | 0.14 | Pollster post | ||
| ●Upswing ResearchGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 401 LV | R+5.0Aaron Flint 48Sam Forstag 43+1 other release | 0.07 | Pollster post | ||
| Peak InsightsGeneral · REP sponsor · REP partisan | 400 LV | Ryan Zinke 48Sam Forstag 38Don't know 14+1 other release | not in the average | Poll release | ||
| Tulchin ResearchGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 424 LV | Ryan Busse 47Ryan Zinke 43Don't know 10 | not in the average | Poll document |
Poll archive as of October 29, 2026. It can hold polls newer than the forecast; a poll listed here is not necessarily in it.
Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.