MO-2 House polls 2026
Fred Wellman (D) vs Ann Wagner (R). The polls in the poll average, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.
The polls and the poll average
drag or tap for a day · tap a dot for its pollOct 28, 2026D+1.4today's poll average of 4 polls
- poll in the average · area is its weight
- trend through the counted polls · ends on today's average
The line is a trend, not the average as it stood each day: the same polls and weights, with each poll leaning in smoothly over the weeks before its date. It starts at the first counted poll and ends on today's average.
Data table
| Days | Average as it stood | Trend line |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2026 | D+1.4 | D+1.4 |
| Oct 20–Oct 27, 2026 | D+1.4 | D+1.4 |
| Oct 14–Oct 19, 2026 | D+1.6 | D+1.4 |
| Sep 15–Oct 13, 2026 | R+1.5 | R+1.5 to D+1.5 |
| May 31–Sep 14, 2026 | R+3.0 | R+3.0 to R+1.5 |
In House races the forecast then counts a poll sponsored by a party or campaign at full weight and moves its margin 2 points against that party, which puts the average it reads at D+0.4.
Every poll on file · 5
newest added first4 in the poll average · 1 shown, not counted
| Pollster | Fielded | Sample | Result | Added | Weight | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ●Emerson CollegeGeneral · House | 401 LV | D+5.0Fred Wellman 51Ann Wagner 46 | 7d ago | 0.46 | Poll release | |
| ●Public Policy PollingGeneral · House · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 631 LV | D+1.0Fred Wellman 46Ann Wagner 45+1 other release | 7d ago | 0.62 | Pollster post | |
| Remington Research GroupGeneral · House | 565 LV | R+1.0Ann Wagner 43Fred Wellman 42 | counted once · listed twice | Pollster post | ||
| ●RemingtonGeneral | 565 LV | R+1.0Ann Wagner 43Fred Wellman 42+1 other release | 0.39 | Pollster post | ||
| ●FM3 ResearchGeneral · D sponsor · D partisan | 600 LV | R+3.0Ann Wagner 44Fred Wellman 41 | 0.12 | Poll document |
Poll archive as of October 29, 2026. It can hold polls newer than the forecast; a poll listed here is not necessarily in it.
Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.