MN-1 House polls 2026
Jake Johnson (D) vs Brad Finstad (R). The polls in the poll average, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.
The polls and the poll average
drag or tap for a day · tap a dot for its pollOct 28, 2026D+0.6today's poll average of 5 polls
- poll in the average · area is its weight
- trend through the counted polls · ends on today's average
The line is a trend, not the average as it stood each day: the same polls and weights, with each poll leaning in smoothly over the weeks before its date. It starts at the first counted poll and ends on today's average.
Data table
| Days | Average as it stood | Trend line |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2026 | D+0.6 | D+0.6 |
| Oct 14–Oct 27, 2026 | D+0.6 | D+0.6 |
| Oct 12–Oct 13, 2026 | D+1.0 | D+0.7 |
| Sep 21–Oct 11, 2026 | R+0.2 | R+0.2 to D+0.7 |
| Mar 14–Sep 20, 2026 | R+6.8 | R+6.8 to R+0.2 |
| Feb 3–Mar 13, 2026 | R+3.0 | R+3.0 to R+6.8 |
In House races the forecast then counts a poll sponsored by a party or campaign at full weight and moves its margin 2 points against that party, which puts the average it reads at R+0.6.
Every poll on file · 6
newest added first5 in the poll average · 1 shown, not counted
| Pollster | Fielded | Sample | Result | Added | Weight | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ●Public Policy PollingGeneral · House · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 588 LV | TiedBrad Finstad 43Jake Johnson 43+1 other release | 7d ago | 0.56 | Pollster post | |
| SurveyUSAGeneral · House | 565 LV | D+2.0Jake Johnson 46Brad Finstad 44 | not in the average | Poll release | ||
| ●SurveyUSAGeneral | 565 LV | D+2.0Jake Johnson 46Brad Finstad 44Don't know 10 | 0.54 | Poll release | ||
| ●GBAOGeneral · House · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 500 LV | D+1.0Jake Johnson 47Brad Finstad 46 | 0.40 | Pollster post | ||
| ●Ragnar Research PartnersGeneral · REP sponsor · REP partisan | 400 LV | R+10.0Brad Finstad 52Jake Johnson 42Don't know 6+1 other release | 0.04 | News coverage | ||
| ●Public Policy PollingGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 708 RV | R+3.0Brad Finstad 44Jake Johnson 41Don't know 15 | 0.03 | News coverage |
Poll archive as of October 29, 2026. It can hold polls newer than the forecast; a poll listed here is not necessarily in it.
Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.