MI-7 House polls 2026
William Lawrence (D) vs Tom Barrett (R). The polls in the poll average, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.
Poll averageD+4.9the polls’ average, each as published · same figure as the race page
Polls55 on file · 3 in the poll average · 2 not counted
Latest field dateOct 14Eligible polls: latest poll: 2026-10-14 (14 days old)
EditionOct 28the poll average and its weights as of this edition
The poll average
3 polls countedThe poll average, D+4.9, is of three polls, which run from D+2.0 to D+8.0. That is too few to draw a trend through, so they are listed below, each with its weight.
In House races the forecast then counts a poll sponsored by a party or campaign at full weight and moves its margin 2 points against that party, which puts the average it reads at D+3.9.
Every poll on file · 5
newest added first3 in the poll average · 2 shown, not counted · 7 primary polls on file, not listed here
| Pollster | Fielded | Sample | Result | Added | Weight | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ●Emerson CollegeGeneral · House | 314 LV | D+8.0William Lawrence 53Tom Barrett 45 | 7d ago | 0.41 | Pollster post | |
| ●Global Strategy GroupGeneral · House · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 500 LV | D+2.0William Lawrence 49Tom Barrett 47+1 other release | 0.25 | Poll release | ||
| ●Data for ProgressGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 772 LV | D+2.0William Lawrence 48Tom Barrett 46Don't know 6+2 other releases | 0.19 | News coverage | ||
| Public Policy PollingGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 519 RV | Bridget Brink 46Tom Barrett 45+1 other release | not in the average | Pollster post | ||
| Public Policy PollingGeneral · House · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 557 RV | Matt Maasdam 43Tom Barrett 39+1 other release | not in the average | News coverage |
Poll archive as of October 29, 2026. It can hold polls newer than the forecast; a poll listed here is not necessarily in it.
Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.