MI-7 House polls
William Lawrence (D) vs Tom Barrett (R). The polls the model aggregates, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.
Adjusted aggregateTiedsame figure as the race page
Polls22 recorded polls · 2 eligible for the aggregate · 2 with positive weight
Latest field dateAug 13Eligible polls: latest poll: 2026-08-13 (31 days old)
EditionSep 13weights and corrections as of this edition
The polls the model reads
hover, tap or Tab to any poll- counted poll · area is its model weight
- weight exactly zero · shown, not counted
- poll trend · smoothed across nearby polls, larger and non-partisan ones count more · the recent end firms up as polls arrive
- published average
- 30 days before this edition
Every poll on file · 4
newest first2 in the aggregate · 2 shown, not counted · 7 primary polls on file, not listed here
| Pollster | Fielded | Added | Sample | Result | Weight | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ●Global Strategy GroupGeneral · House · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 500 LV | William Lawrence 49Tom Barrett 47+1 other release | 0.100 | Poll release | ||
| ●Data for ProgressGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 772 LV | William Lawrence 48Tom Barrett 46Don't know 6+2 other releases | 0.042 | News coverage | ||
| Public Policy PollingGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 519 RV | Bridget Brink 46Tom Barrett 45+1 other release | not in the aggregate | Pollster post | ||
| Public Policy PollingGeneral · House · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 557 RV | Matt Maasdam 43Tom Barrett 39+1 other release | not in the aggregate | News coverage |
Archive source date 2026-09-13. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.