ME-2 House polls 2026
Matt Dunlap (D) vs Paul LePage (R). The polls in the poll average, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.
The polls and the poll average
drag or tap for a day · tap a dot for its pollOct 28, 2026D+1.5today's poll average of 8 polls
- poll in the average · area is its weight
- not counted · shown, never moves the line
- trend through the counted polls · ends on today's average
- left of the break: 1 earlier poll, not on the time axis
The line is a trend, not the average as it stood each day: the same polls and weights, with each poll leaning in smoothly over the weeks before its date. It starts at the first counted poll and ends on today's average.
Data table
| Days | Average as it stood | Trend line |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2026 | D+1.5 | D+1.5 |
| Oct 14–Oct 27, 2026 | D+1.5 | D+1.5 |
| Sep 30–Oct 13, 2026 | D+1.2 | D+1.2 to D+1.5 |
| Sep 21–Sep 29, 2026 | D+1.0 | D+1.0 to D+1.2 |
| Sep 12–Sep 20, 2026 | R+1.1 | R+0.5 to D+1.0 |
| Aug 13–Sep 11, 2026 | R+1.8 | R+1.8 to R+0.8 |
| Jul 16–Aug 12, 2026 | R+2.5 | R+2.5 to R+1.8 |
| Apr 28–Jul 15, 2026 | R+7.8 | R+7.8 to R+2.5 |
| Feb 16–Apr 27, 2026 | R+1.0 | R+1.0 to R+7.7 |
In House races the forecast then counts a poll sponsored by a party or campaign at full weight and moves its margin 2 points against that party, which puts the average it reads at D+0.3.
Every poll on file · 17
newest added first8 in the poll average · 9 shown, not counted
| Pollster | Fielded | Sample | Result | Added | Weight | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ●Tulchin ResearchGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 500 LV | D+4.0Matt Dunlap 50Paul LePage 46Don't know 4 | 0.52 | Poll document | ||
| ●Tulchin ResearchGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 500 LV | D+2.0Matt Dunlap 50Paul LePage 48Don't know 2 | 0.44 | Poll document | ||
| ●University of New Hampshire Survey CenterGeneral | 622 LV | D+6.0Matt Dunlap 51Paul LePage 45Don't know 5 | 0.44 | Poll release | ||
| ●DCCC Targeting TeamGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 621 LV | R+1.0Paul LePage 49Matt Dunlap 48 | 0.28 | Poll release | ||
| ●Impact ResearchGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 500 LV | TiedPaul LePage 49Matt Dunlap 49+1 other release | 0.36 | Pollster post | ||
| co/efficientGeneral · House · REP sponsor · REP partisan | 918 LV | R+10.0Paul LePage 50Matt Dunlap 40 | not in the average | News coverage | ||
| Pan Atlantic ResearchGeneral · House · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 387 LV | Paul LePage 44Joe Baldacci 43 | not in the average | Poll document | ||
| ●Tulchin ResearchGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 600 LV | D+1.0Matt Dunlap 49Paul LePage 48Don't know 3 | 0.20 | Pollster post | ||
| Pan Atlantic SMS GroupGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 418 LV | Joe Baldacci 49Paul LePage 41Don't know 10 | not in the average | Poll release | ||
| ●co/efficientGeneral · REP sponsor · REP partisan | 918 LV | R+10.0Paul LePage 50Matt Dunlap 40+2 other releases | 0.10 | News coverage | ||
| Upswing ResearchGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 403 LV | Paul LePage 52Jordan Wood 45 | not in the average | Poll document | ||
| ●University of New Hampshire Survey CenterGeneral | 520 LV | Paul LePage 48Jordan Wood 44Don't know 6Someone else 2+4 other releases | 0.03 | Poll release |
Poll archive as of October 29, 2026. It can hold polls newer than the forecast; a poll listed here is not necessarily in it.
Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.