ME-2 House polls
Democrat (D) vs Paul LePage (R). The polls the model aggregates, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.
Adjusted aggregateR+0.4same figure as the race page
Polls44 recorded polls · 4 eligible for the aggregate · 3 with positive weight
Latest field dateJul 16Eligible polls: latest poll: 2026-07-16 (59 days old)
EditionSep 13weights and corrections as of this edition
The polls the model reads
hover, tap or Tab to any poll- counted poll · area is its model weight
- weight exactly zero · shown, not counted
- poll trend · smoothed across nearby polls, larger and non-partisan ones count more · the recent end firms up as polls arrive
- published average
- 30 days before this edition
Every poll on file · 12
newest first4 in the aggregate · 8 shown, not counted
| Pollster | Fielded | Added | Sample | Result | Weight | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ●Tulchin ResearchGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 600 LV | Matt Dunlap 49Paul LePage 48Don't know 3 | 0.054 | Pollster post | ||
| Pan Atlantic SMS GroupGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 418 LV | Joe Baldacci 49Paul LePage 41Don't know 10 | not in the aggregate | Poll release | ||
| co/efficientGeneral · House · REP sponsor · REP partisan | 918 LV | Paul LePage 50Matt Dunlap 40 | not in the aggregate | News coverage | ||
| ●co/efficientGeneral · REP sponsor · REP partisan | 918 LV | Paul LePage 50Matt Dunlap 40+2 other releases | 0.004 | News coverage | ||
| Upswing ResearchGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 403 LV | Paul LePage 52Jordan Wood 45 | not in the aggregate | Poll document | ||
| ●University of New Hampshire Survey CenterGeneral | 520 LV | Paul LePage 48Jordan Wood 44Don't know 6Someone else 2+5 other releases | 0.000 | Poll release | ||
| Pan Atlantic ResearchGeneral · House · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 387 LV | Paul LePage 44Joe Baldacci 43 | not in the aggregate | Poll document | ||
| Pan Atlantic SMS GroupGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 387 LV | Paul LePage 44Joe Baldacci 43Don't know 13 | not in the aggregate | Poll document | ||
| University of New Hampshire Survey CenterGeneral | 521 LV | Paul LePage 49Jared Golden 44Don't know 3Someone else 3 | not in the aggregate | Poll release | ||
| University of New Hampshire Survey CenterGeneral | 394 A | Paul LePage 50Jared Golden 47Don't know 2Someone else 2 | not in the aggregate | Poll release | ||
| ●Mellman GroupGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 400 LV | Jared Golden 44Paul LePage 43Don't know 12 | 0 · not counted | News coverage | ||
| Ragnar Research PartnersGeneral · REP sponsor · REP partisan | 400 LV | Paul LePage 48Jared Golden 43 | not in the aggregate | News coverage |
Archive source date 2026-09-13. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.