Race polling · HOU-KY-6

KY-6 House polls 2026

Zach Dembo (D) vs Ralph Alvarado (R). The polls in the poll average, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.

Poll averageD+4.9the polls’ average, each as published · same figure as the race page

Polls99 on file · 9 in the poll average

Latest field dateOct 20Eligible polls: latest poll: 2026-10-20 (8 days old)

EditionOct 28the poll average and its weights as of this edition

The polls and the poll average

drag or tap for a day · tap a dot for its poll

Oct 28, 2026D+4.9today's poll average of 9 polls

poll in the average · area is its weight
trend through the counted polls · ends on today's average

The line is a trend, not the average as it stood each day: the same polls and weights, with each poll leaning in smoothly over the weeks before its date. It starts at the first counted poll and ends on today's average.

Data table

The poll average as the edition published it for each stretch of days, and the trend line drawn over the same days.
Days	Average as it stood	Trend line
Oct 28, 2026	D+4.9	D+4.9
Oct 20–Oct 27, 2026	D+4.9	D+4.9
Oct 5–Oct 19, 2026	D+4.6	D+4.6 to D+4.9
Oct 4, 2026	D+1.9	D+4.5
Sep 30–Oct 3, 2026	D+1.5	D+4.1 to D+4.5
Aug 23–Sep 29, 2026	R+0.2	R+0.2 to D+3.9
Jul 30–Aug 22, 2026	R+1.0	R+1.0 to R+0.2
Jun 28–Jul 29, 2026	R+1.9	R+1.9 to R+1.0
Apr 25–Jun 27, 2026	Even	Even to R+1.9

In House races the forecast then counts a poll sponsored by a party or campaign at full weight and moves its margin 2 points against that party, which puts the average it reads at D+2.9.

Every poll on file · 9

newest added first

9 in the poll average

Pollster	Fielded	Sample	Result	Added	Weight	Source
●Public Policy PollingGeneral · House · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan	Oct 20, 2026	572 LV	D+6.0Zach Dembo 47Ralph Alvarado 41+1 other release	Oct 217d ago	0.59	Pollster post
●DCCC Targeting TeamGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan	Oct 5, 2026	606 LV	D+6.0Zach Dembo 46Ralph Alvarado 40Don't know 8Jay Bowman 5Pete Lynch 1	Oct 14	0.51	Poll release
●Lake Research PartnersGeneral · House · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan	Oct 4, 2026	400 LV	D+3.0Zach Dembo 48Ralph Alvarado 45+1 other release	Oct 8	0.41	Pollster post
●Change ResearchGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan	Oct 5, 2026	524 LV	D+9.0Zach Dembo 47Ralph Alvarado 38Don't know/Would not vote 8Someone else 7	Oct 8	0.48	Poll release
●GQRGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan	Sep 30, 2026	401 LV	D+5.0Zach Dembo 42Ralph Alvarado 37Someone else 11Don't know 9	Oct 2	0.39	Poll release
●Lake Research PartnersGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan	Aug 23, 2026	— LV	D+1.0Zach Dembo 45Ralph Alvarado 44	Aug 27	0.25	Poll release
●DCCC Targeting TeamGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan	Jul 30, 2026	474 LV	TiedZach Dembo 47Ralph Alvarado 47Don't know 6	Aug 7	0.21	Poll release
●GQRGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan	Jun 28, 2026	— LV	R+3.0Ralph Alvarado 42Zach Dembo 39Don't know 19	Jul 13	0.14	Poll release
●Public Policy PollingGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan	Apr 25, 2026	675 RV	Ryan Dotson 37Cherlynn Stevenson 36+3 other releases	May 12	0.08	News coverage

Poll archive as of October 29, 2026. It can hold polls newer than the forecast; a poll listed here is not necessarily in it.

Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.