Call
the Map
FORECAST51 DAYS OUT
Race polling · HOU-KY-6

KY-6 House polls

Zach Dembo (D) vs Ralph Alvarado (R). The polls the model aggregates, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.

Adjusted aggregateR+0.6same figure as the race page
Polls44 recorded polls · 4 eligible for the aggregate · 4 with positive weight
Latest field dateAug 23Eligible polls: latest poll: 2026-08-23 (21 days old)
EditionSep 13weights and corrections as of this edition

The polls the model reads

hover, tap or Tab to any poll
last 30 daysR+5EVEND+5May ’26JunJulAugSep
  • counted poll · area is its model weight
  • weight exactly zero · shown, not counted
  • poll trend · smoothed across nearby polls, larger and non-partisan ones count more · the recent end firms up as polls arrive
  • published average
  • 30 days before this edition

Every poll on file · 4

newest first

4 in the aggregate · 0 shown, not counted

PollsterFieldedAddedSampleResultWeightSource
Lake Research PartnersGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan LVZach Dembo 45Ralph Alvarado 440.199Poll release
DCCC Targeting TeamGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan474 LVZach Dembo 47Ralph Alvarado 47Don't know 60.076Poll release
GQRGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan LVRalph Alvarado 42Zach Dembo 39Don't know 190.032Poll release
Public Policy PollingGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan675 RVRyan Dotson 37Cherlynn Stevenson 36+3 other releases0.005News coverage

Archive source date 2026-09-13. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.

Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.