IL-4 House polls 2026
Patty Garcia (D) vs Lupe Castillo (R). The polls in the poll average, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.
Poll averageD+19.0the polls’ average, each as published · same figure as the race page
Polls22 on file · 1 in the poll average · 1 not counted
Latest field dateAug 3Eligible polls: latest poll: 2026-08-03 (86 days old)
EditionOct 28the poll average and its weights as of this edition
The poll average
one poll countedThe poll average is one poll: The Bullfinch Group, fielded through Aug 3, 2026, at D+19.0. With a single poll there is no trend to draw; it is listed below.
In House races the forecast then counts a poll sponsored by a party or campaign at full weight and moves its margin 2 points against that party, which leaves the average it reads the same for this race.
Every poll on file · 2
newest added first1 in the poll average · 1 shown, not counted
| Pollster | Fielded | Sample | Result | Added | Weight | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Bullfinch GroupGeneral · House | 653 RV | D+19.0Patty Garcia 34Lupe Castillo 15Chris Getty 9Ed Hershey 4 | not in the average | Poll release | ||
| ●The Bullfinch GroupGeneral | 653 RV | D+19.0Don't know 37Patty Garcia 34Lupe Castillo 15Chris Getty 9Ed Hershey 4Would not vote 1 | 0.26 | Poll release |
Poll archive as of October 29, 2026. It can hold polls newer than the forecast; a poll listed here is not necessarily in it.
Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.