ID-1 House polls 2026
Kaylee Peterson (D) vs Russ Fulcher (R). The polls in the poll average, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.
The polls and the poll average
drag or tap for a day · tap a dot for its pollOct 28, 2026R+19.7today's poll average of 4 polls
- poll in the average · area is its weight
- trend through the counted polls · ends on today's average
The line is a trend, not the average as it stood each day: the same polls and weights, with each poll leaning in smoothly over the weeks before its date. It starts at the first counted poll and ends on today's average.
Data table
| Days | Average as it stood | Trend line |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2026 | R+19.7 | R+19.7 |
| Oct 22–Oct 27, 2026 | R+19.7 | R+19.7 |
| Jul 30–Oct 21, 2026 | R+12.9 | R+12.9 to R+19.6 |
| Jul 14–Jul 29, 2026 | R+7.5 | R+7.5 to R+12.9 |
In House races the forecast then counts a poll sponsored by a party or campaign at full weight and moves its margin 2 points against that party, which puts the average it reads at R+20.1.
Every poll on file · 5
newest added first4 in the poll average · 1 shown, not counted
| Pollster | Fielded | Sample | Result | Added | Weight | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ●VoteNexus ResearchGeneral | 600 LV | R+26.0Russ Fulcher 52Kaylee Peterson 26 | 4d ago | 0.62 | Poll document | |
| VoteNexusGeneral · IND sponsor · IND partisan | — LV | R+26.0Russ Fulcher 52Kaylee Peterson 26Don't know 10Brendan Gomez 6Sarah Zabel 5 | 5d ago | not in the average | Poll document | |
| ●Change ResearchGeneral · IND sponsor · IND partisan | — LV | R+21.0Russ Fulcher 48Kaylee Peterson 27Don't know 18Sarah Zabel 5Would not vote 2Brendan Gomez 0+1 other release | 0.24 | Poll document | ||
| ●SurveyUSA (I)General | 478 LV | R+5.0Russ Fulcher 44Kaylee Peterson 39 | 0.17 | Poll release | ||
| ●SurveyUSAGeneral · IND sponsor · IND partisan | 480 LV | R+10.0Russ Fulcher 45Kaylee Peterson 35Don't know 14Sarah Zabel 6Would not vote 1 | 0.18 | Poll release |
Poll archive as of October 29, 2026. It can hold polls newer than the forecast; a poll listed here is not necessarily in it.
Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.