IA-2 House polls 2026
Lindsay James (D) vs Joe Mitchell (R). The polls in the poll average, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.
Poll averageD+2.4the polls’ average, each as published · same figure as the race page
Polls33 on file · 3 in the poll average
Latest field dateOct 14Eligible polls: latest poll: 2026-10-14 (14 days old)
EditionOct 28the poll average and its weights as of this edition
The poll average
3 polls countedThe poll average, D+2.4, is of three polls, which run from D+1.0 to D+3.0. That is too few to draw a trend through, so they are listed below, each with its weight.
In House races the forecast then counts a poll sponsored by a party or campaign at full weight and moves its margin 2 points against that party, which puts the average it reads at D+1.6.
Every poll on file · 3
newest added first3 in the poll average
| Pollster | Fielded | Sample | Result | Added | Weight | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ●Emerson CollegeGeneral · House | 344 LV | D+3.0Lindsay James 50Joe Mitchell 47 | 7d ago | 0.43 | Pollster post | |
| ●Global Strategy GroupGeneral · House · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | — LV | D+1.0Lindsay James 46Joe Mitchell 45 | 0.21 | Poll document | ||
| ●Public Policy PollingGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 673 RV | D+3.0Lindsay James 36Joe Mitchell 33Don't know 31 | 0.07 | Pollster post |
Poll archive as of October 29, 2026. It can hold polls newer than the forecast; a poll listed here is not necessarily in it.
Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.