IA-1 House polls 2026
Christina Bohannan (D) vs Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R). The polls in the poll average, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.
Poll averageD+11.8the polls’ average, each as published · same figure as the race page
Polls33 on file · 2 in the poll average · 1 not counted
Latest field dateOct 2Eligible polls: latest poll: 2026-10-02 (26 days old)
EditionOct 28the poll average and its weights as of this edition
The poll average
2 polls countedThe poll average, D+11.8, is of two polls, which run from D+5.0 to D+16.0. That is too few to draw a trend through, so they are listed below, each with its weight.
In House races the forecast then counts a poll sponsored by a party or campaign at full weight and moves its margin 2 points against that party, which leaves the average it reads the same for this race.
Every poll on file · 3
newest added first2 in the poll average · 1 shown, not counted
| Pollster | Fielded | Sample | Result | Added | Weight | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ●Wavefield ResearchGeneral | 297 LV | D+16.0Christina Bohannan 45Mariannette Miller-Meeks 29 | 6d ago | 0.35 | Poll release | |
| ●The Bullfinch GroupGeneral · IND sponsor · IND partisan | 705 LV | D+5.0Christina Bohannan 40Mariannette Miller-Meeks 35Don't know 11Michael Bridgford 11Someone else 2Would not vote 0 | 0.22 | Poll release | ||
| Public Policy PollingGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 555 RV | R+3.0Generic Republican 45Generic Democrat 42Don't know 13+2 other releases | 0 · not counted | Poll document |
Poll archive as of October 28, 2026. It can hold polls newer than the forecast; a poll listed here is not necessarily in it.
Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.