IA-3 House polls
Sarah Trone Garriott (D) vs Zach Nunn (R). The polls the model aggregates, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.
Adjusted aggregateR+3.0same figure as the race page
Polls11 recorded poll · 1 eligible for the aggregate · 1 with positive weight
Latest field dateMar 14Eligible polls: latest poll: 2026-03-14 (183 days old)
EditionSep 11weights and corrections as of this edition
The polls the model reads
hover, tap or Tab to any poll- counted poll · area is its model weight
- weight exactly zero · shown, not counted
- poll trend · smoothed across nearby polls, larger and non-partisan ones count more · the recent end firms up as polls arrive
- published average
- 30 days before this edition
Every poll on file · 3
newest first1 in the aggregate · 2 shown, not counted
| Pollster | Fielded | Added | Sample | Result | Weight | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ●Ragnar Research PartnersGeneral · REP sponsor · REP partisan | 400 LV | Zach Nunn 48Sarah Trone Garriott 42Don't know 10+1 other release | 0.001 | News coverage | ||
| Change ResearchGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 638 LV | Generic Democrat 45Generic Republican 42Don't know 13Would not vote 1 | not in the aggregate | Poll release | ||
| Public Policy PollingGeneral | 717 RV | Jennifer Konfrst 44Zach Nunn 44Don't know 12 | not in the aggregate | News coverage |
Archive source date 2026-09-11 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.