IA-1 House polls
Christina Bohannan (D) vs Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R). The polls the model aggregates, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.
Adjusted aggregateD+5.0same figure as the race page
Polls22 recorded polls · 2 eligible for the aggregate · 1 with positive weight
Latest field dateJul 16Eligible polls: latest poll: 2026-07-16 (59 days old)
EditionSep 13weights and corrections as of this edition
The polls the model reads
hover, tap or Tab to any poll- counted poll · area is its model weight
- weight exactly zero · shown, not counted
- trailing 30-day average
- published average
- 30 days before this edition
Every poll on file · 2
newest first2 in the aggregate · 0 shown, not counted
| Pollster | Fielded | Added | Sample | Result | Weight | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ●The Bullfinch GroupGeneral · House | 705 LV | Christina Bohannan 40Mariannette Miller-Meeks 35Michael Bridgford 11+1 other release | 0.085 | News coverage | ||
| ●Public Policy PollingGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 555 RV | Generic Republican 45Generic Democrat 42Don't know 13+2 other releases | 0 · not counted | Poll document |
Archive source date 2026-09-13. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.