FL-22 House polls
Pia Dandiya (D) vs Casey Askar (R). The polls the model aggregates, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.
Adjusted aggregateTiedsame figure as the race page
Polls22 recorded polls · 2 eligible for the aggregate · 2 with positive weight
Latest field dateAug 31Eligible polls: latest poll: 2026-08-31 (14 days old)
EditionSep 13weights and corrections as of this edition
The polls the model reads
hover, tap or Tab to any poll- counted poll · area is its model weight
- weight exactly zero · shown, not counted
- poll trend · smoothed across nearby polls · the recent end firms up as polls arrive
- published average
- 30 days before this edition
Every poll on file · 4
newest first2 in the aggregate · 2 shown, not counted · 1 primary poll on file, not listed here
| Pollster | Fielded | Added | Sample | Result | Weight | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Impact ResearchGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | — LV | Generic Republican 46Generic Democrat 46+1 other release | 5d ago | not in the aggregate | Poll release | |
| ●Tulchin ResearchGeneral · D sponsor · D partisan | 600 UNKNOWN | Pia Dandiya 46Casey Askar 44 | 15h ago | 0.245 | Poll release | |
| ●Tavern ResearchGeneral · House | 551 LV | Casey Askar 50Pia Dandiya 50+1 other release | 0.183 | Poll document | ||
| GQRGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 400 LV | Generic Republican 45Generic Democrat 43Don't know 12+1 other release | not in the aggregate | Poll release |
Archive source date 2026-09-13. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.