FL-21 House polls
James Martin (D) vs Brian Mast (R). The polls in the poll average, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.
Poll averageR+11.0the polls’ average, each as published · same figure as the race page
Polls11 on file · 1 in the poll average
Latest field dateSep 25Eligible polls: latest poll: 2026-09-25 (26 days old)
EditionOct 21the poll average and its weights as of this edition
The poll average
one poll countedThe poll average is one poll: Upswing Research, fielded through Sep 25, 2026, at R+11.0. With a single poll there is no trend to draw; it is listed below.
The forecast then counts a poll sponsored by a party or campaign at full weight and moves its margin 2 points against that party, which puts the average it reads at R+13.0.
Every poll on file · 1
newest first1 in the poll average
| Pollster | Fielded | Sample | Result | Added | Weight | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ●Upswing ResearchGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 402 LV | R+11.0Brian Mast 49James Martin 38 | 7h ago | 0.40 | Poll release |
Archive source date 2026-10-21. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.