FL-14 House polls 2026
Kathy Castor (D) vs Mike Beltran (R). The polls in the poll average, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.
Poll averageD+3.4the polls’ average, each as published · same figure as the race page
Polls33 on file · 3 in the poll average
Latest field dateOct 23Eligible polls: latest poll: 2026-10-23 (5 days old)
EditionOct 28the poll average and its weights as of this edition
The poll average
3 polls countedThe poll average, D+3.4, is of three polls, which run from D+1.0 to D+8.7. That is too few to draw a trend through, so they are listed below, each with its weight.
In House races the forecast then counts a poll sponsored by a party or campaign at full weight and moves its margin 2 points against that party, which puts the average it reads at D+2.3.
Every poll on file · 3
newest added first3 in the poll average · 3 primary polls on file, not listed here
| Pollster | Fielded | Sample | Result | Added | Weight | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ●RedBox ResearchGeneral · D sponsor · D partisan | 708 LV | D+1.0Kathy Castor 46Mike Beltran 45 | 13h ago | 0.68 | Poll release | |
| ●Emerson CollegeGeneral · House | 315 LV | D+5.0Kathy Castor 48Mike Beltran 43 | 7d ago | 0.41 | Pollster post | |
| ●St. Pete PollsGeneral | 469 LV | D+8.7Kathy Castor 46.2Mike Beltran 37.5Don't know 16.4+1 other release | 0.18 | Poll release |
Poll archive as of October 29, 2026. It can hold polls newer than the forecast; a poll listed here is not necessarily in it.
Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.