FL-13 House polls
Leela Gray (D) vs Anna Paulina Luna (R). The polls in the poll average, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.
The polls and the poll average
drag or tap for a day · tap a dot for its pollOct 23, 2026R+0.4today's poll average of 5 polls
- poll in the average · area is its weight
- trend through the counted polls · ends on today's average
The line is a trend, not the average as it stood each day: the same polls and weights, with each poll leaning in smoothly over the weeks before its date. It starts at the first counted poll and ends on today's average.
Data table
| Days | Average as it stood | Trend line |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | R+0.4 | R+0.4 |
| Oct 15–Oct 22, 2026 | R+0.4 | R+0.4 |
| Aug 27–Oct 14, 2026 | R+1.3 | R+1.3 to R+0.4 |
| Aug 6–Aug 26, 2026 | R+4.7 | R+4.7 to R+1.3 |
| May 20–Aug 5, 2026 | R+2.0 | R+2.0 to R+4.7 |
The forecast then counts a poll sponsored by a party or campaign at full weight and moves its margin 2 points against that party, which puts the average it reads at R+1.8.
Every poll on file · 5
newest first5 in the poll average
| Pollster | Fielded | Sample | Result | Added | Weight | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ●Public Policy PollingGeneral · House · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 603 LV | D+1.0Leela Gray 47Anna Paulina Luna 46+1 other release | 3d ago | 0.61 | Pollster post | |
| ●Hart Research AssociatesGeneral · House · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 500 LV | D+1.0Leela Gray 44Anna Paulina Luna 43Tony D'Arrigo 7+3 other releases | 0.32 | Poll release | ||
| ●Fabrizio, Lee & AssociatesGeneral · REP sponsor · REP partisan | 400 LV | R+8.0Anna Paulina Luna 49Leela Gray 41 | 0.22 | Poll release | ||
| ●GQRGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 500 LV | R+3.0Anna Paulina Luna 47Leela Gray 44Don't know 6Tony D’Arrigo 4 | 0.25 | News coverage | ||
| ●Public Policy PollingGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 616 RV | R+2.0Anna Paulina Luna 41Leela Gray 39 | 0.11 | Poll document |
Archive source date 2026-10-24. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.