CT-5 House polls
Jahana Hayes (D) vs Chris Shea (R). The polls in the poll average, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.
Poll averageD+6.0the polls’ average, each as published · same figure as the race page
Polls11 on file · 1 in the poll average
Latest field dateOct 1Eligible polls: latest poll: 2026-10-01 (24 days old)
EditionOct 25the poll average and its weights as of this edition
The poll average
one poll countedThe poll average is one poll: OnMessage Inc., fielded through Oct 1, 2026, at D+6.0. With a single poll there is no trend to draw; it is listed below.
The forecast then counts a poll sponsored by a party or campaign at full weight and moves its margin 2 points against that party, which puts the average it reads at D+8.0.
Every poll on file · 1
newest first1 in the poll average
| Pollster | Fielded | Sample | Result | Added | Weight | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ●OnMessage Inc.General · REP sponsor · REP partisan | 400 LV | D+6.0Jahana Hayes 51Chris Shea 45Don't know 4 | 23h ago | 0.41 | Pollster post |
Archive source date 2026-10-25. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.