CA-48 House polls
Marni von Wilpert (D) vs Jim Desmond (R). The polls the model aggregates, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.
Adjusted aggregateD+2.6same figure as the race page
Polls22 recorded polls · 2 eligible for the aggregate · 2 with positive weight
Latest field dateSep 1Eligible polls: latest poll: 2026-09-01 (8 days old)
EditionSep 9weights and corrections as of this edition
The polls the model reads
hover, tap or Tab to any poll- counted poll · area is its model weight
- weight exactly zero · shown, not counted
- trailing 30-day average
- published average
- 30 days before this edition
Every poll on file · 3
newest first2 in the aggregate · 1 shown, not counted
| Pollster | Fielded | Sample | Result | Weight | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ●SurveyUSAGeneral | 522 LV | Marni von Wilpert 45Jim Desmond 42Don't know 13+1 other release | 0.498 | Poll release | |
| ●Lake Research PartnersGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 500 LV | Marni von Wilpert 48Jim Desmond 46Don't know 6 | 0.068 | Poll release | |
| Blueprint PollingGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 517 LV | Ammar Campa-Najjar 43Darrell Issa 40 | not in the aggregate | Poll document |
Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.