CA-48 House polls
Marni von Wilpert (D) vs Jim Desmond (R). The polls in the poll average, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.
The polls and the poll average
drag or tap for a day · tap a dot for its pollOct 23, 2026D+4.3today's poll average of 4 polls
- poll in the average · area is its weight
- trend through the counted polls · ends on today's average
The line is a trend, not the average as it stood each day: the same polls and weights, with each poll leaning in smoothly over the weeks before its date. It starts at the first counted poll and ends on today's average.
Data table
| Days | Average as it stood | Trend line |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | D+4.3 | D+4.3 |
| Oct 20–Oct 22, 2026 | D+4.3 | D+4.3 |
| Oct 7–Oct 19, 2026 | D+5.4 | D+5.3 to D+4.4 |
| Sep 1–Oct 6, 2026 | D+2.6 | D+2.6 to D+5.3 |
| Jul 14–Aug 31, 2026 | D+2.0 | D+2.0 to D+2.6 |
The forecast then counts a poll sponsored by a party or campaign at full weight and moves its margin 2 points against that party, which puts the average it reads at D+4.9.
Every poll on file · 5
newest first4 in the poll average · 1 shown, not counted
| Pollster | Fielded | Sample | Result | Added | Weight | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ●Tarrance GroupGeneral · REP sponsor · REP partisan | 410 LV | D+3.0Marni von Wilpert 47Jim Desmond 44 | 10h ago | 0.53 | Poll document | |
| ●SurveyUSAGeneral | 518 LV | D+9.0Marni von Wilpert 47Jim Desmond 38Don't know 15 | 0.51 | Poll release | ||
| ●SurveyUSAGeneral | 522 LV | D+3.0Marni von Wilpert 45Jim Desmond 42Don't know 13 | 0.34 | Poll release | ||
| ●Lake Research PartnersGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 500 LV | D+2.0Marni von Wilpert 48Jim Desmond 46Don't know 6 | 0.19 | Poll release | ||
| Blueprint PollingGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 517 LV | Ammar Campa-Najjar 43Darrell Issa 40 | tests a different matchup | Poll document |
Archive source date 2026-10-24. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.