AZ-2 House polls 2026
Jonathan Nez (D) vs Eli Crane (R). The polls in the poll average, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.
The polls and the poll average
drag or tap for a day · tap a dot for its pollOct 28, 2026R+2.6today's poll average of 4 polls
- poll in the average · area is its weight
- trend through the counted polls · ends on today's average
The line is a trend, not the average as it stood each day: the same polls and weights, with each poll leaning in smoothly over the weeks before its date. It starts at the first counted poll and ends on today's average.
Data table
| Days | Average as it stood | Trend line |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2026 | R+2.6 | R+2.6 |
| Oct 14–Oct 27, 2026 | R+2.6 | R+2.6 |
| Aug 24–Oct 13, 2026 | R+6.3 | R+6.3 to R+2.6 |
| Aug 20–Aug 23, 2026 | R+8.3 | R+6.9 to R+6.4 |
| Jun 15–Aug 19, 2026 | R+3.0 | R+3.0 to R+7.2 |
In House races the forecast then counts a poll sponsored by a party or campaign at full weight and moves its margin 2 points against that party, which puts the average it reads at R+2.7.
Every poll on file · 4
newest added first4 in the poll average
| Pollster | Fielded | Sample | Result | Added | Weight | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ●Emerson CollegeGeneral · House | 345 LV | D+2.0Jonathan Nez 50Eli Crane 48 | 7d ago | 0.43 | Pollster post | |
| ●GBAOGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 500 LV | R+2.0Eli Crane 46Jonathan Nez 44Don't know 10 | 0.29 | News coverage | ||
| ●Peak InsightsGeneral · R sponsor · R partisan | 400 LV | R+11.0Eli Crane 53Jonathan Nez 42 | 0.25 | Pollster post | ||
| ●GBAOGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 500 LV | R+3.0Eli Crane 44Jonathan Nez 41Don't know 9Curtis Goodwin 7 | 0.13 | Poll document |
Poll archive as of October 29, 2026. It can hold polls newer than the forecast; a poll listed here is not necessarily in it.
Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.