AR-2 House polls 2026
Chris Jones (D) vs French Hill (R). The polls in the poll average, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.
Poll averageTiedthe polls’ average, each as published · same figure as the race page
Polls44 on file · 3 in the poll average · 1 not counted
Latest field dateOct 14Eligible polls: latest poll: 2026-10-14 (15 days old)
EditionOct 28the poll average and its weights as of this edition
The poll average
3 polls countedThe poll average, Tied, is of three polls, which run from R+4.0 to D+4.0. That is too few to draw a trend through, so they are listed below, each with its weight.
In House races the forecast then counts a poll sponsored by a party or campaign at full weight and moves its margin 2 points against that party, which puts the average it reads at R+0.2.
Every poll on file · 4
newest added first3 in the poll average · 1 shown, not counted
| Pollster | Fielded | Sample | Result | Added | Weight | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ●Emerson CollegeGeneral · House | 383 LV | R+4.0French Hill 52Chris Jones 48 | 7d ago | 0.45 | Pollster post | |
| Hendrix CollegeGeneral · House | 1,112 LV | D+4.0Chris Jones 48French Hill 44 | not in the average | Poll release | ||
| ●Hendrix CollegeGeneral | 1,112 LV | D+4.0Chris Jones 48French Hill 44Don't know 8 | 0.37 | Poll release | ||
| ●2040 Strategy GroupGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | — LV | D+3.0Chris Jones 46French Hill 43Don't know 10+1 other release | 0.09 | Poll release |
Poll archive as of October 29, 2026. It can hold polls newer than the forecast; a poll listed here is not necessarily in it.
Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.