Race polling · HOU-AL-2

AL-2 House polls 2026

Shomari Figures (D) vs Rhett Marques (R). The polls in the poll average, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.

Poll averageR+1.1the polls’ average, each as published · same figure as the race page

Polls44 on file · 4 in the poll average

Latest field dateOct 25Eligible polls: latest poll: 2026-10-25 (4 days old)

EditionOct 29the poll average and its weights as of this edition

The polls and the poll average

drag or tap for a day · tap a dot for its poll

Oct 29, 2026R+1.1today's poll average of 4 polls

poll in the average · area is its weight
trend through the counted polls · ends on today's average

The line is a trend, not the average as it stood each day: the same polls and weights, with each poll leaning in smoothly over the weeks before its date. It starts at the first counted poll and ends on today's average.

Data table

The poll average as the edition published it for each stretch of days, and the trend line drawn over the same days.
Days	Average as it stood	Trend line
Oct 29, 2026	R+1.1	R+1.1
Oct 25–Oct 28, 2026	R+1.1	R+1.1
Aug 31–Oct 24, 2026	R+0.2	R+0.2 to R+1.1
Jul 30–Aug 30, 2026	R+0.4	R+0.4 to R+0.2
Jun 25–Jul 29, 2026	R+1.0	R+1.0 to R+0.4

In House races the forecast then counts a poll sponsored by a party or campaign at full weight and moves its margin 2 points against that party, which puts the average it reads at R+2.1.

Every poll on file · 4

newest added first

4 in the poll average

Pollster	Fielded	Sample	Result	Added	Weight	Source
●RemingtonGeneral	Oct 25, 2026	642 LV	R+7.0Generic Republican 51Generic Democrat 44Don't know 5+1 other release	Oct 295h ago	0.66	Poll release
●Tulchin ResearchGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan	Aug 31, 2026	— LV	TiedRhett Marques 47Shomari Figures 47	Sep 9	0.34	Poll release
●DCCC Targeting TeamGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan	Jul 30, 2026	421 LV	TiedRhett Marques 46Shomari Figures 46Don't know 8	Aug 14	0.20	Poll release
●Impact ResearchGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan	Jun 25, 2026	400 LV	R+1.0Rhett Marques 45Shomari Figures 44	Jul 7	0.13	Poll release

Poll archive as of October 29, 2026. It can hold polls newer than the forecast; a poll listed here is not necessarily in it.

Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.