AL-2 House polls 2026
Shomari Figures (D) vs Rhett Marques (R). The polls in the poll average, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.
Poll averageR+0.2the polls’ average, each as published · same figure as the race page
Polls33 on file · 3 in the poll average
Latest field dateAug 31Eligible polls: latest poll: 2026-08-31 (59 days old)
EditionOct 28the poll average and its weights as of this edition
The poll average
3 polls countedThe poll average, R+0.2, is of three polls, which run from Tied to R+1.0. That is too few to draw a trend through, so they are listed below, each with its weight.
In House races the forecast then counts a poll sponsored by a party or campaign at full weight and moves its margin 2 points against that party, which puts the average it reads at R+2.2.
Every poll on file · 3
newest added first3 in the poll average
| Pollster | Fielded | Sample | Result | Added | Weight | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ●Tulchin ResearchGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | — LV | TiedRhett Marques 47Shomari Figures 47 | 0.34 | Poll release | ||
| ●DCCC Targeting TeamGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 421 LV | TiedRhett Marques 46Shomari Figures 46Don't know 8 | 0.20 | Poll release | ||
| ●Impact ResearchGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 400 LV | R+1.0Rhett Marques 45Shomari Figures 44 | 0.13 | Poll release |
Poll archive as of October 29, 2026. It can hold polls newer than the forecast; a poll listed here is not necessarily in it.
Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.