AL-2 House polls
Shomari Figures (D) vs Rhett Marques (R). The polls the model aggregates, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.
Adjusted aggregateR+0.1same figure as the race page
Polls33 recorded polls · 3 eligible for the aggregate · 3 with positive weight
Latest field dateAug 31Eligible polls: latest poll: 2026-08-31 (13 days old)
EditionSep 13weights and corrections as of this edition
The polls the model reads
hover, tap or Tab to any poll- counted poll · area is its model weight
- weight exactly zero · shown, not counted
- poll trend · smoothed across nearby polls, larger and non-partisan ones count more · the recent end firms up as polls arrive
- published average
- 30 days before this edition
Every poll on file · 3
newest first3 in the aggregate · 0 shown, not counted
| Pollster | Fielded | Added | Sample | Result | Weight | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ●Tulchin ResearchGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | — LV | Rhett Marques 47Shomari Figures 47 | 4d ago | 0.245 | Poll release | |
| ●DCCC Targeting TeamGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 421 LV | Rhett Marques 46Shomari Figures 46Don't know 8 | 0.071 | Poll release | ||
| ●Impact ResearchGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 400 LV | Rhett Marques 45Shomari Figures 44 | 0.019 | Poll release |
Archive source date 2026-09-13. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.