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FORECAST51 DAYS OUT
Race polling · GOV-MD

Maryland Governor polls

Wes Moore (D) vs Dan Cox (R). The polls the model aggregates, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.

Adjusted aggregateD+24.1same figure as the race page
Polls11 recorded poll · 1 eligible for the aggregate · 1 with positive weight
Latest field dateAug 3Eligible polls: latest poll: 2026-08-03 (41 days old)
EditionSep 13weights and corrections as of this edition

The polls the model reads

hover, tap or Tab to any poll
last 30 daysEVEND+10D+20D+30Sep ’26
  • counted poll · area is its model weight
  • weight exactly zero · shown, not counted
  • poll trend · smoothed across nearby polls, larger and non-partisan ones count more · the recent end firms up as polls arrive
  • published average
  • 30 days before this edition

Every poll on file · 4

newest first

1 in the aggregate · 3 shown, not counted

PollsterFieldedAddedSampleResultWeightSource
Zenith ResearchGeneral · Governor · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan800 LVWes Moore 58Dan Cox 31+1 other release0.164Poll release
Gonzales ResearchGeneral808 LVWes Moore 49.9Generic Republican 28Don't know 16.3Someone else 5.8not in the aggregatePoll release
University of Maryland Baltimore CountyGeneral757 RVWes Moore 49Generic Republican 29Generic Candidate 12Don't know 10not in the aggregatePoll document
OpinionWorksGeneral928 RVWes Moore 45Larry Hogan 37Don't know 14not in the aggregatePoll release

Archive source date 2026-09-13. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.

Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.