TX-02 · U.S. House
Open this race on The Map ↗Steve Toth is heavily favored to hold Texas’s 2nd congressional district. Predicted margin: R+12.7.
high / low: vote share (%) in the middle 80 in 100 simulations
Forecast history
Latest reading · Oct 8 · first published Sep 9 · 80% range · margin points R+20.9 to R+4.5. Methodology
Hover the line, tap it, or use the arrow keys to inspect its history.
About this series
This comparable series begins on September 9, 2026, when the model version changed to CTMM 2.2. Earlier readings remain in the archive and are not joined as voter movement.
Faded: CTMM 2.2 reconstructed history: computed after the fact with each date's available polls and environment, without expert ratings; not an issued forecast. Issued forecasts begin at the launch marker.
CTMM 2.2 readings for 2026-09-16, 2026-09-17, 2026-09-18 were computed after the fact with each day's available inputs: no edition was issued on those days. Not an issued forecast.
The polls
Poll average R+9.0A poll’s weight halves every 60 days and grows with its sample, up to one and a half times a 600-interview poll. Each pollster counts once, at its best release. Every poll is counted at its published margin, and a poll sponsored by a party or campaign counts like any other here.The forecast then counts a poll sponsored by a party or campaign at full weight and moves its margin 2 points against that party, which puts the average it reads at R+11.0.1 recorded poll · 1 in the poll average
| Fieldwork | Added | Pollster | Result | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| from 2026-09-29 | 4h ago | Impact Research ↗ | R+9.0D 37% · R 46% | 501 LV |
How the margin was built
Follow each contribution to the margin. Wider ribbons mean more percentage points. Tap an input for its calculation and source.
The signed totals combine at the forecast. Displayed values are rounded.
All calculations & sources
This district's measured terrain −23.107 points
Call the Map's partisan lean on the CURRENT district lines, before any current-cycle evidence. Every pull below is measured from here — not from EVEN.
- Call the Map partisan lean, district geography bound to this forecast edition.
- Prior source: official_reaggregation_tx; district redrawn for 2026.
Fitted model, above the terrain shown +6.265 points
What the fitted model adds on top of the starting terrain above — incumbency, past results, campaign finance and the other fitted terms — measured from that terrain rather than from EVEN. It is a comparison with the starting point already shown, not a separate input. The source detail lists the variables the fit uses.
- Fitted baseline -16.842 minus starting point -23.107 = 6.265 points.
- One fitted structural total; this edition does not split it into partisan lean and incumbency.
- Fundamentals: −16.8 — the district's structural lean before this year's polling, money and candidate quality are added.
- This edition publishes that as one fitted total. It does not break it into a partisan-lean and an incumbency term, so this page does not invent that split.
- fundamentals core = 25-term dynamic formula (mass fit over the master feature matrix, held-out-cycle validated; see matrix/feature_dictionary.md + mass_fit_report.json)
- 40-term formula, held-out validated.
This race’s polls +2.369 points
What this race’s own recent polling adds beyond its prior, after each poll is weighted for recency, sample size and pollster quality.
- Impact Research (2026-10-04, n=501): R+9.0 · weight 0.58 in the poll average
- Poll average R+9.0, from 1 poll · 1 recorded poll. This is the polls’ own average, each poll at its published margin, the figure this page’s poll summary shows. The forecast then counts a poll sponsored by a party or campaign at full weight and moves its margin 2 points against that party, which puts the average it reads at R+11.0. The forecast gives the polls 58% of the weight against its structural prior for this race; the recorded polling contribution is +2.4 D. Eligible polls: latest poll: 2026-10-04 (4 days old).
National environment +1.772 points
The contribution to this race’s margin, not the national polling margin itself. The race’s loading, reference level and polling blend determine how much of the national climate reaches its final forecast.
- Three-source blend, updated 2026-09-08: 51% generic-ballot aggregates (D+6.5) · 29% special-election overperformance (D+9.0 across 46 specials) · 19% approval-implied (D+8.6 from net approval -21.7).
- Latest polls — generic ballot 2026-09-08 (30 days old), approval 2026-09-10 (28 days old).
- Generic-ballot average D+6.5 · support factor 0.80 (the share of that channel's capacity the admitted polls carry) — separate inputs; their product is a capacity diagnostic, not a margin.
- Weights are the 55/25/20 capacities scaled by each channel's evidence and renormalized, so thin polling widens the interval instead of pulling the center toward zero — 19% of the weight is carried that way.
- Blended national environment: D+7.6.
- Applied at full strength to this chamber's races.
- This step’s recorded contribution to the margin is +1.8.
- Blended national environment: D+7.6 (updated 2026-09-08).
- Effective poll weight 81%; fundamentals share 19%, carried by the interval (×1.09) rather than by the center.
- The support factor is the share of the generic-ballot capacity the admitted polls carry; average × support is a capacity diagnostic, not a margin, and is not what the row above multiplies.
- Applied at full strength to this chamber: +1.8 of this margin.
The components this edition publishes for this race, in points. “Other factors” closes the sum to the two-party structural lean exactly. Here the structural lean IS the published margin, so the walk sums to the projection exactly; nothing is left over.
| Named factor | Contribution |
|---|---|
| FundamentalsThe admitted fitted baseline. Its surviving variables differ by office; the source detail above identifies those used for this race. | −16.84 |
| This race's pollsAdmitted head-to-head polls of this race, recency- and quality-weighted. | +2.37 |
| National environmentThe national environment’s contribution to the prior. Polling can attenuate its influence; this value is not the national polling margin. | +1.77 |
| Other factors | 0.00 |
Recent elections
| Election | Result | Votes cast |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 · U.S. House ↗ | R+31.3 | 326,883 |
| 2022 · U.S. House ↗ | R+31.8 | 230,287 |
| 2020 · U.S. House ↗ | R+13.0 | 346,726 |
| 2018 · U.S. House ↗ | R+7.4 | 263,392 |
Historical district boundaries may differ. Margins compare Democratic and Republican vote totals. Nonstandard ballots are labeled separately.
The money
Shaun Finnie ↗
D$2.7Mraised
$1.5M cash on handFiling through 06/30/2026
Steve Toth ↗
R$824Kraised
$153K cash on handFiling through 06/30/2026
Bar length compares reported receipts in this race; the tick marks cash on hand. A missing filing stays blank rather than becoming $0.
One more fundraising reportCall the Map · $105
The candidates are comfortably out-fundraising the website covering them. A little rude, perhaps, but statistically unsurprising.
- Received so far
- $105
- Measured compute
- $26,188.58
Ko-fi and Buy Me a Coffee supports are counted as each one arrives. Measured compute prices model runs at standard published API rates; it is not what I paid. Hosting, data and subscriptions, the domain and my own time are not counted. Donations buy gratitude, never a forecast adjustment.
Supporters are listed by first name and last initial. Want your full name shown? Say so in your message. Give privately, or leave the name blank, and you are counted without a name.
Thank you to Tom H. and ColoradoFlyer.
Outside spending
Support + opposition · separate from receiptsFor and against Shaun Finnie$23K
1 spending group
| Group | For | Against |
|---|---|---|
| AMERICAN JOBS AND GROWTH PAC | $0 | $23K |
For and against Steve Toth$2.4M
5 spending groups
| Group | For | Against |
|---|---|---|
| FIGHT TO WIN AMERICA, INC. | $0 | $1.8M |
| ALAMO FREEDOM FIGHTERS PAC | $445K | $0 |
| FREEDOM CAUCUS FUND | $50K | $0 |
| Turning Point PAC | $24K | $0 |
| Montgomery County First PAC | $721 | $0 |
Includes primary spending. Opposition is recorded against its named target; no benefit to another candidate is assumed.
$1.5M in outside spending on earlier candidates.
FEC filings · through 06/30/2026 · Definitions & method
Race context
- Forecast votes cast
- 230,638
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+23.1
Forecast as of October 8, 2026: Call the Map currently has Steve Toth ahead of Shaun Finnie by R+12.7, with a 97 in 100 chance to win. The seat is currently held by a Republican. That result would keep the seat with Republicans. The current poll average is R+9.0; 1 public poll is recorded.