← House3 November 2026 · 55 days out

FL-09 · U.S. House

Open this race on The Map ↗

Dan Green is narrowly favored to flip FL-09’s House seat. Predicted margin: R+3.6.

Darren Soto (D)26 in 10026.3%

Dan Green (R)74 in 10073.7%

high / low: vote share (%) in the middle 80 in 100 simulations

Lean R80% range · margin points R+10.9 to D+3.7Democratic-held seat

Forecast history

First published reading · Sep 9 · 80% range · margin points R+10.9 to D+3.7. Methodology

Hover the line, tap it, or use the arrow keys to inspect its history.

About this series

This comparable series begins on September 9, 2026, when the model version changed to CTMM 2.1. Earlier readings remain in the archive and are not joined as voter movement; faded points before September 9, 2026 are reconstructions, not forecasts issued on those days.

Faded: CTMM 2.2 reconstructed history: computed after the fact with each date's available polls and environment, without expert ratings; not an issued forecast. Issued forecasts begin at the launch marker.

The polls

Polling average EVEN1 recorded poll · 1 eligible for the aggregate · 1 with positive weight

Fieldwork	Pollster	Result	Sample
2026-08-30from 2026-08-24	SEA Polling ↗	EVEND 41% · R 41%	400 LV

Explore all 1 poll for this race

How the margin was built

Follow each contribution to the margin. Wider ribbons mean more percentage points. Tap an input for its calculation and source.

Toward D+14.0

Toward R−17.6

Forecast marginR+3.6

The signed totals combine at the forecast. Displayed values are rounded.

All calculations & sources

This district's measured terrain −17.643 points

Call the Map's partisan lean on the CURRENT district lines, before any current-cycle evidence. Every pull below is measured from here — not from EVEN.

Call the Map partisan lean, district geography bound to this forecast edition.
Prior source: model_reconstructed_trial15_new_seat; district redrawn for 2026.

Fitted model, above the terrain shown +10.068 points

What the fitted model adds on top of the starting terrain above — incumbency, past results, campaign finance and the other fitted terms — measured from that terrain rather than from EVEN. It is a comparison with the starting point already shown, not a separate input. The source detail lists the variables the fit uses.

Fitted baseline -7.575 minus starting point -17.643 = 10.068 points.
One fitted structural total; this edition does not split it into partisan lean and incumbency.
Fundamentals: −7.6 — the district's structural lean before this year's polling, money and candidate quality are added.
This edition publishes that as one fitted total. It does not break it into a partisan-lean and an incumbency term, so this page does not invent that split.
fundamentals core = 25-term dynamic formula (mass fit over the master feature matrix, held-out-cycle validated; see matrix/feature_dictionary.md + mass_fit_report.json)
40-term formula, held-out validated.

This race’s polls +2.825 points

What this race’s own recent polling adds beyond its prior, after each poll is weighted for recency, sample size and pollster quality.

District/state polling admitted under the shared rule.
SEA Polling (2026-08-30, n=400): ±0.0 · weight 0.59
Adjusted poll-bank aggregate ±0.0 · 1 recorded poll · 1 eligible for the aggregate · 1 with positive weight. The sealed model records a net polling contribution of +2.8 D. Observation weights are not the final model blend weight. Eligible polls: latest poll: 2026-08-30 (10 days old).
Adjusted poll-bank aggregate ±0.0 · 1 recorded poll · 1 eligible for the aggregate · 1 with positive weight; recorded polling contribution +2.8 D. These observation weights must not be read as the model’s final prior-versus-polling weight. Eligible polls: latest poll: 2026-08-30 (10 days old).

National environment +1.156 points

The contribution to this race’s margin, not the national polling margin itself. The race’s loading, reference level and polling blend determine how much of the national climate reaches its final forecast.

Three-source blend, updated 2026-09-06: 52% generic-ballot aggregates (D+6.3) · 29% special-election overperformance (D+9.0 across 46 specials) · 20% approval-implied (D+8.6 from net approval -21.5).
Latest polls — generic ballot 2026-09-06 (3 days old), approval 2026-09-07 (2 days old).
Generic-ballot average D+6.3 · support factor 0.82 (the share of that channel's capacity the admitted polls carry) — separate inputs; their product is a capacity diagnostic, not a margin.
Weights are the 55/25/20 capacities scaled by each channel's evidence and renormalized, so thin polling widens the interval instead of pulling the center toward zero — 17% of the weight is carried that way.
Blended national environment: D+7.5.
Applied at full strength to this chamber's races.
The work: national environment × 1 chamber strength = +1.2 of this margin.
Blended national environment: D+7.5 (updated 2026-09-06).
Effective poll weight 83%; fundamentals share 17%, carried by the interval (×1.08) rather than by the center.
The support factor is the share of the generic-ballot capacity the admitted polls carry; average × support is a capacity diagnostic, not a margin, and is not what the row above multiplies.
Applied at full strength to this chamber: +1.2 of this margin.

The components this edition publishes for this race, in points. “Other factors” closes the sum to the two-party structural lean exactly. Here the structural lean IS the published margin, so the walk sums to the projection exactly; nothing is left over.

Named factor	Contribution
FundamentalsThe admitted fitted baseline. Its surviving variables differ by office; the source detail above identifies those used for this race.	−7.57
This race's pollsAdmitted head-to-head polls of this race, recency- and quality-weighted.	+2.82
National environmentThe national environment’s contribution to the prior. Polling can attenuate its influence; this value is not the national polling margin.	+1.16
Other factors	0.00

Moves with

FL-13same side on 78 in 100 nights
FL-07same side on 77 in 100 nights
FL-22same side on 70 in 100 nights
AL-02same side on 76 in 100 nights
AR-02same side on 72 in 100 nights

In the model's correlated simulation nights these races most often land the same way — shared national and regional swings, not cause and effect. 2,000 weighted nights.

Recent elections

Election	Result	Votes cast
2024 · U.S. House ↗	D+12.8	324,273
2022 · U.S. House ↗	D+7.3	202,368
2020 · U.S. House ↗	D+12.1	429,638
2018 · U.S. House ↗	D+16.0	296,737

Historical district boundaries may differ. Margins compare Democratic and Republican vote totals. Nonstandard ballots are labeled separately.

The prediction market

The recorded quote on Polymarket prices the Democratic side at 34 in 100, on $19,667 of volume.

Quote is inside the 36-hour refresh window. Quote timestamp: 2026-09-07T22:55:38.009448+00:00. Market prices do not enter the forecast.

Scope & sources

Current

The money

Darren Soto ↗

$2.2Mraised

$1.2M cash on handFiling through 07/29/2026

Dan Green ↗

$1.3Mraised

$363K cash on handFiling through 07/29/2026

Bar length compares reported receipts in this race; the tick marks cash on hand. A missing filing stays blank rather than becoming $0.

One more fundraising reportCall the Map · $0

The candidates are comfortably out-fundraising the website covering them. A little rude, perhaps, but statistically unsurprising.

Received so far: $0
Measured compute: $26,188.58

Ko-fi and Buy Me a Coffee receipts are counted through Sep 1, 2026. Measured compute prices model runs at standard published API rates; it is not what I paid. Hosting, data and subscriptions, the domain and my own time are not counted. Donations buy gratitude, never a forecast adjustment.

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