CA-07 · U.S. House
Mai Vang is slightly favored to win. Projected candidate margin: Mai Vang over Doris Matsui by 6.6 points. No two-party forecast is published for this race: November's certified top-two field is Mai Vang and Doris Matsui, so a Democrat-versus-Republican margin would not describe this contest.
Under each share, its likely range (80 in 100 simulations) · * incumbent
The polls
The polls of these two candidates
Both candidates are Democrats, so there is no Democrat-versus-Republican contest to estimate. The forecast splits the vote between them by the plain average of the one poll listed here: Mai Vang 53.3% and Doris Matsui 46.7%. Each poll counts the same. Newer and larger polls get no extra weight, nothing is adjusted for who paid for a poll, and the average is not blended with past results, the national mood or fundraising.
| Fieldwork | Pollster | Each candidate’s share | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|
| from 2026-08-18 | Data for Progress ↗for Justice Democrats | Leaders We Deserve | Working Families Party PACDemocratic-aligned sponsor | 53.3Mai Vang46.7Doris Matsui | 651LV |
| Plain average, as the forecast took it | 53.3Mai Vang46.7Doris Matsui | 1 poll | |
It then simulates the election many times around that split and publishes the average result: Mai Vang 53.3% and Doris Matsui 46.7%, a lead of 6.6 points for Mai Vang.
Each poll’s figures are shares of the people who picked a candidate. Undecided voters are left out, so the numbers run a little higher than the poll’s own headline figures, and a candidate who has since left the race is not counted.
Where the votes are
The map of this race loads here.
Recent elections
| Election | Result | Votes cast |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 · U.S. House ↗ | D+33.5 | 295,770 |
| 2022 · U.S. House ↗ | D+36.5 | 220,651 |
| 2020 · U.S. House ↗ | D+13.2 | 383,965 |
| 2018 · U.S. House ↗ | D+10.1 | 281,617 |
Historical district boundaries may differ. Margins are the Democrat’s share of all votes cast minus the Republican’s.
The money
Doris Matsui ↗
D$3.2Mraised
$467K cash on hand
Mai Vang ↗
D$1.1Mraised
$106K cash on hand
The tick marks cash on hand. A missing filing stays blank rather than becoming $0.
One more fundraising reportCall the Map · $325
The candidates are comfortably out-fundraising the website covering them. A little rude, perhaps, but statistically unsurprising.
- Received so far
- $325
- Measured compute
- $26,188.58
Ko-fi and Buy Me a Coffee supports are counted as each one arrives. Measured compute prices model runs at standard published API rates; it is not what I paid. Hosting, data and subscriptions, the domain and my own time are not counted. Donations buy gratitude, never a forecast adjustment.
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FEC filings · through 06/30/2026 · Definitions & method
Race context
- 2024 presidential vote here
- 346,907
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+13.3between the two parties
Forecast as of October 28, 2026: Call the Map currently has Mai Vang ahead of Doris Matsui by 6.6 points, with a 63 in 100 chance to win. The seat is currently held by a Democrat. That result would keep the seat with Democrats. The forecast reads 1 poll that named every candidate in this race, listed under “The polls”.