CA-06 · U.S. House
Richard Pan is almost certain to win. Projected candidate margin: Richard Pan over Kevin Kiley by 16.2 points. No two-party forecast is published for this race: November's certified top-two field is Richard Pan and Kevin Kiley, so a Democrat-versus-Republican margin would not describe this contest.
Field notes
Under each share, its likely range (80 in 100 simulations) · * incumbent
Forecast history
Latest reading · Oct 28 · first published Sep 9 · Lead between the top two candidates, in points of all votes. Methodology
Back-filled: this chart was added on October 4, 2026, with a display fix. Its earlier readings are the lead the forecast published on each of those days, taken from the archived daily forecasts.
About this series
Reconstructed with the current model Aug 1 – Sep 8 and Sep 16 – Sep 18; published readings Sep 9 – Oct 28. Each reconstructed day is the current model on that day’s own inputs, not a forecast published then. Corrections are dated in the changelog.
Faded: CTMM 2.2 reconstructed history: computed after the fact with each date's available polls and environment, without expert ratings; not an issued forecast. Issued forecasts begin at the launch marker.
CTMM 2.2 readings for 2026-09-16, 2026-09-17, 2026-09-18 were computed after the fact with each day's available inputs: no edition was issued on those days. Not an issued forecast.
Data table
| Date | Lead | Chance | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28 | D+16.2 | Richard Pan win 98.1% | Published forecast |
| Oct 27 | D+16.2 | Richard Pan win 98.1% | Published forecast |
| Oct 26 | D+16.2 | Richard Pan win 98.1% | Published forecast |
| Oct 25 | D+16.2 | Richard Pan win 98.1% | Published forecast |
| Oct 24 | D+16.2 | Richard Pan win 98.1% | Published forecast |
| Oct 23 | D+16.1 | Richard Pan win 98.1% | Published forecast |
| Oct 22 | D+16.1 | Richard Pan win 98.1% | Published forecast |
| Oct 21 | D+16.1 | Richard Pan win 98.1% | Published forecast |
| Oct 20 | D+16.1 | Richard Pan win 98.0% | Published forecast |
| Oct 19 | D+16.0 | Richard Pan win 98.0% | Published forecast |
| Oct 18 | D+16.0 | Richard Pan win 98.0% | Published forecast |
| Oct 17 | D+16.0 | Richard Pan win 98.0% | Published forecast |
| Oct 16 | D+16.0 | Richard Pan win 98.0% | Published forecast |
| Oct 15 | D+15.9 | Richard Pan win 98.0% | Published forecast |
| Oct 14 | D+15.9 | Richard Pan win 98.0% | Published forecast |
| Oct 13 | D+15.9 | Richard Pan win 98.0% | Published forecast |
| Oct 12 | D+15.9 | Richard Pan win 98.0% | Published forecast |
| Oct 11 | D+15.9 | Richard Pan win 98.0% | Published forecast |
| Oct 10 | D+15.9 | Richard Pan win 98.0% | Published forecast |
| Oct 9 | D+15.9 | Richard Pan win 98.0% | Published forecast |
| Oct 8 | D+15.9 | Richard Pan win 98.0% | Published forecast |
| Oct 7 | D+15.9 | Richard Pan win 98.0% | Published forecast |
| Oct 6 | D+15.8 | Richard Pan win 97.9% | Published forecast |
| Oct 5 | D+15.7 | Richard Pan win 97.9% | Published forecast |
| Oct 4 | D+15.8 | Richard Pan win 97.9% | Published forecast |
| Oct 3 | D+15.7 | Richard Pan win 97.9% | Published forecast |
| Oct 2 | D+15.7 | Richard Pan win 97.9% | Published forecast |
| Oct 1 | D+15.7 | Richard Pan win 97.9% | Published forecast |
| Sep 30 | D+15.7 | Richard Pan win 98.0% | Published forecast |
| Sep 29 | D+15.7 | Richard Pan win 97.9% | Published forecast |
| Sep 28 | D+15.7 | Richard Pan win 97.9% | Published forecast |
| Sep 27 | D+15.7 | Richard Pan win 97.9% | Published forecast |
| Sep 26 | D+15.7 | Richard Pan win 97.9% | Published forecast |
| Sep 25 | D+15.7 | Richard Pan win 97.9% | Published forecast |
| Sep 24 | D+15.6 | Richard Pan win 97.9% | Published forecast |
| Sep 23 | D+15.6 | Richard Pan win 97.8% | Published forecast |
| Sep 22 | D+15.6 | Richard Pan win 97.7% | Published forecast |
| Sep 21 | D+15.6 | Richard Pan win 97.7% | Published forecast |
| Sep 20 | D+15.6 | Richard Pan win 97.8% | Published forecast |
| Sep 19 | D+15.6 | Richard Pan win 97.7% | Published forecast |
| Sep 18 | D+15.6 | Richard Pan win 97.8% | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Sep 17 | D+15.6 | Richard Pan win 97.8% | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Sep 16 | D+15.6 | Richard Pan win 97.8% | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Sep 15 | D+15.4 | Richard Pan win 97.7% | Published forecast |
| Sep 14 | D+15.5 | Richard Pan win 97.8% | Published forecast |
| Sep 13 | D+15.5 | Richard Pan win 97.7% | Published forecast |
| Sep 12 | D+15.4 | Richard Pan win 97.6% | Published forecast |
| Sep 11 | D+15.4 | Richard Pan win 97.7% | Published forecast |
| Sep 10 | D+15.3 | Richard Pan win 97.8% | Published forecast |
| Sep 9 | D+15.3 | Richard Pan win 97.6% | Published forecast |
| Sep 8 | D+15.3 | Richard Pan win 97.7% | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Sep 7 | D+15.2 | Richard Pan win 97.7% | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Sep 6 | D+15.2 | Richard Pan win 97.7% | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Sep 5 | D+15.2 | Richard Pan win 97.6% | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Sep 4 | D+15.2 | Richard Pan win 97.6% | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Sep 3 | D+15.2 | Richard Pan win 97.6% | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Sep 2 | D+15.2 | Richard Pan win 97.6% | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Sep 1 | D+15.2 | Richard Pan win 97.6% | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 31 | D+15.2 | Richard Pan win 97.6% | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 30 | D+15.2 | Richard Pan win 97.6% | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 29 | D+15.2 | Richard Pan win 97.6% | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 28 | D+15.2 | Richard Pan win 97.6% | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 27 | D+15.2 | Richard Pan win 97.6% | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 26 | D+15.1 | Richard Pan win 97.6% | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 25 | D+15.2 | Richard Pan win 97.6% | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 24 | D+15.2 | Richard Pan win 97.6% | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 23 | D+15.2 | Richard Pan win 97.6% | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 22 | D+15.2 | Richard Pan win 97.6% | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 21 | D+15.1 | Richard Pan win 97.7% | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 20 | D+15.1 | Richard Pan win 97.7% | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 19 | D+15.2 | Richard Pan win 97.7% | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 18 | D+15.2 | Richard Pan win 97.7% | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 17 | D+15.1 | Richard Pan win 97.7% | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 16 | D+15.1 | Richard Pan win 97.7% | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 15 | D+15.2 | Richard Pan win 97.7% | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 14 | D+15.1 | Richard Pan win 97.6% | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 13 | D+15.1 | Richard Pan win 97.6% | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 12 | D+15.1 | Richard Pan win 97.6% | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 11 | D+15.1 | Richard Pan win 97.6% | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 10 | D+15.1 | Richard Pan win 97.6% | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 9 | D+15.1 | Richard Pan win 97.6% | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 8 | D+15.1 | Richard Pan win 97.6% | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 7 | D+15.1 | Richard Pan win 97.6% | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 6 | D+15.0 | Richard Pan win 97.6% | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 5 | D+15.0 | Richard Pan win 97.6% | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 4 | D+15.0 | Richard Pan win 97.6% | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 3 | D+15.0 | Richard Pan win 97.6% | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 2 | D+15.0 | Richard Pan win 97.5% | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
| Aug 1 | D+15.0 | Richard Pan win 97.5% | Reconstructed with the stated inputs |
The polls
Polls that name every candidate
These are the polls of this race’s candidates that were on file when this site was last built. This edition of the forecast does not publish the list of polls it read, so a newer poll may be missing here.
| Fieldwork | Pollster | Each candidate’s share | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|
| from 2026-09-01 | The Bullfinch Group ↗for Independent Leadership Council | 50.1Richard Pan49.9Kevin Kiley | 927LV |
| from 2026-07-13 | The Bullfinch Group ↗for The Independent Center | 52.7Richard Pan47.3Kevin Kiley | 741LV |
Each poll’s figures are shares of the people who picked a candidate. Undecided voters are left out, so the numbers run a little higher than the poll’s own headline figures, and a candidate who has since left the race is not counted.
Where the votes are
The map of this race loads here.
Recent elections
| Election | Result | Votes cast |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 · U.S. House ↗ | D+15.2 | 287,072 |
| 2022 · U.S. House ↗ | D+11.9 | 216,383 |
| 2020 · U.S. House ↗ | D+46.7 | 313,114 |
| 2018 · U.S. House ↗ | Not a D–R contestThe ballot was not a Democrat versus a Republican; a D/R margin cannot identify the winner. | 201,939 |
Historical district boundaries may differ. Margins are the Democrat’s share of all votes cast minus the Republican’s.
The money
Kevin Kiley ↗
I$3.0Mraised
$2.1M cash on hand
Richard Pan ↗
D$1.1Mraised
$359K cash on hand
The tick marks cash on hand. A missing filing stays blank rather than becoming $0.
One more fundraising reportCall the Map · $325
The candidates are comfortably out-fundraising the website covering them. A little rude, perhaps, but statistically unsurprising.
- Received so far
- $325
- Measured compute
- $26,188.58
Ko-fi and Buy Me a Coffee supports are counted as each one arrives. Measured compute prices model runs at standard published API rates; it is not what I paid. Hosting, data and subscriptions, the domain and my own time are not counted. Donations buy gratitude, never a forecast adjustment.
Supporters are listed by first name and last initial; a username alone is shortened to its first eight characters. Want your full name shown? Say so in your message. Give privately, or leave the name blank, and you are listed as Anonymous, with the platform and date. Supporters who give a name may also be thanked by name in the newsletter.
Thank you to Tom H., ColoradoFlyer, Chris, EW, gbaileym…, True Independent, MT V., JBL, Erin G., Caroline M., Melanie, MKV and 7 more.
FEC filings · through 06/30/2026 · Definitions & method
Race context
- 2024 presidential vote here
- 336,344
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+8.7between the two parties
Forecast as of October 28, 2026: Call the Map currently has Richard Pan ahead of Kevin Kiley by 16.2 points, with a 98 in 100 chance to win. The seat is currently held by a Democrat. That result would keep the seat with Democrats. No current nominee-matched poll average is available, so the forecast is leaning on the non-polling evidence shown below.