Texas

James Talarico won a Republican-held U.S. Senate seat by 12.1 points over Ken Paxton, in a state Donald Trump carried by 13.7 two years earlier. Gina Hinojosa beat Republican Greg Abbott for governor by 7.2, and Democrats won all six of the other statewide executive offices, each of them held by a Republican: attorney general, lieutenant governor, comptroller, agriculture commissioner, land commissioner and the seat on the Railroad Commission that was on the ballot.^{1, 2, 3, 4} The U.S. House delegation hardly changed. Bobby Pulido and Katy Padilla Stout won Republican-held seats for the Democrats, by 24.7 and 8.2 points, and Republican Jace Yarbrough took a Democratic-held seat by 2.9, the only one of five redrawn seats that Republicans carried, FOX 4 reported.⁵ That leaves 24 Republicans and 14 Democrats, although Democratic candidates won the House vote statewide by 5.7 points.

The Senate race finished 25.8 points to the left of the 2024 presidential vote. Talarico drew 113 votes for every 100 Kamala Harris won in Texas, more than Harris did, and Paxton drew 66 for every 100 of Trump’s. Turnout, measured by the governor’s race, the most-voted contest, was 123% of 2022’s and 87% of the 2024 presidential vote.

Every part of the state moved, between 19.5 and 29.3 points. The smaller metro areas, which cast 20% of the vote, moved furthest and changed sides, from R+27.6 to D+1.8. The Dallas and Houston metro areas, together about half the vote, went from R+6.4 and R+6.9 to D+17.4 and D+19.9. The small towns and rural counties moved least and stayed Republican by 39.2 points.

The largest of the 28 counties that voted for Trump in 2024 and for Talarico this year is Tarrant County, in the Dallas metro area. It went from R+5.1 to D+19.2 on 728,630 votes. The widest swing outside the smallest counties was in Hidalgo County, in the McAllen area, which moved 49.3 points, from R+2.9 to D+46.5. Harris County, which casts more votes than any other county, went from D+5.5 to D+32.9. No county moved toward the Republicans. Collin County backed Democrats in statewide contests for the first time in decades, FOX 4 reported.⁵

Texas goes from Republican control of the governorship and both chambers to divided government. Hinojosa won the governor’s office and, on unofficial results, Democrats won a majority of the state House: 83 of 150 seats, up from 62, if the results hold, the Texas Tribune reported on November 4. On November 7 the Tribune wrote that Democrats were poised to control more than 80 seats, with some races not officially called because of thin margins, in what would be their first House majority since 2003.^{6, 7} Republicans kept the Senate, 19 to 12.^{6, 8} The constitution requires a two-thirds vote in each chamber to override a veto, and neither party holds two-thirds of either.^{6, 9}

“I look forward to working with Republican leaders in the legislature,” Hinojosa said at a news conference on November 5. In her victory speech she had promised to remove Mike Morath as commissioner of the Texas Education Agency on the day she is sworn in. Lt. Gov.-elect Vikki Goodwin will preside over the Senate, but the extent of her powers depends on rules approved by the senators, who are majority-Republican, Community Impact reported.⁸ The House elects its speaker on January 12, 2027. Rep. Senfronia Thompson, a Houston Democrat, said on November 6 that a majority of the House had pledged to her, after her only rival, Rep. Eddie Morales Jr., withdrew and endorsed her.^{7, 8} Rep. Christina Morales, who chairs the House Democrats’ campaign arm, listed expanding Medicaid, repealing school vouchers and repealing immigration-related legislation as goals for a Democratic House.⁶

Redistricting plans pass the Legislature as bills, and the governor can veto them. If the Legislature does not redraw state House or Senate seats, a five-member board does: the lieutenant governor, House speaker, attorney general, comptroller and land commissioner.¹⁰ Democrats won each of the statewide offices on that board. The office that runs elections changes hands too. The secretary of state, whose Elections Division administers the Texas Election Code, is appointed by the governor with the advice and consent of the Senate and serves during the governor’s term, so the next one will be Hinojosa’s choice, subject to a Senate with a Republican majority.^{9, 11}

Democrats won all four Texas Supreme Court seats on the ballot, with Maggie Ellis defeating Chief Justice Jimmy Blacklock, so the nine-member court goes from all-Republican to a 5-4 Republican majority. They won the three seats on the ballot for the Court of Criminal Appeals, which keeps a 6-3 Republican majority, and all three seats on the statewide 15th Court of Appeals.¹² On the 15-member State Board of Education, which sets curriculum for more than five million public school students, Democrats appeared in position to double their seats from four to eight, Houston Public Media reported. The eighth depends on District 8, where Democrat Dana Van de Walker led Republican incumbent Audrey Young by a little more than 500 votes; without that race each party holds seven, the Texas Tribune reported.^{13, 14}

In Tarrant County, which the Texas Tribune describes as having been the largest Republican-controlled county in Texas, Democrat Alisa Simmons declared victory over Republican County Judge Tim O’Hare. Simmons would be its first Democratic county judge since 1986, the Tribune reported. Democrat Tiffany Burks defeated the Republican district attorney, Phil Sorrells, and Democrats are set for a 4-1 majority on the commissioners court.¹⁵ In Harris County, Democrat Letitia Plummer won the race for county judge over Republican Orlando Sanchez, 60.93 percent to 39.05 percent on unofficial results, Community Impact reported.¹⁶

Republicans won again in 23 of the U.S. House seats they held, every one of them by less than Trump’s margin in the district. Steve Toth won the Second District by 1.9 points and Michael Cloud the Twenty-seventh by 2.3, in districts Trump carried by 22.6 and 21.0. Republicans carried 214 of the state’s 254 counties in the Senate race. They kept the state Senate, took the Thirty-second Congressional District from the Democrats and will hold 24 U.S. House seats, a net loss of one, FOX 4 reported.^{5, 6}

Neither of Texas’s U.S. Senate seats will be on the ballot in 2028, and the governor’s office will not be either: the constitution sets a four-year term.⁹ The state voted R+13.7 for president in 2024 and D+12.1 in this year’s Senate race. The same constitution has the Legislature redraw state Senate and House districts at its first regular session after each census is published.⁹

The state House majority is not final. Our count has Democrats ahead in 83 districts and Republicans in 67. The Tribune reported that provisional and mail ballots and recounts could change the total, and that the status of House District 93 was unclear.⁶ As of November 7 some races had not been officially called.⁷