Michigan

Abdul El-Sayed won the Senate seat over Republican Mike Rogers by 7.0 points, and Jocelyn Benson won the governor’s office over Republican John James by 10.7. Benson will be the state’s 50th governor, succeeding the term-limited Gretchen Whitmer, and Bridge Michigan reported that El-Sayed is the first Muslim elected to the U.S. Senate.¹ Democrats also kept the offices of attorney general and secretary of state. In the U.S. House they took three seats from Republicans: Sean McCann defeated Rep. Bill Huizenga in the Fourth District, Will Lawrence defeated Rep. Tom Barrett in the Seventh, and Christina Hines won the open Tenth, which John James left to run for governor.² The margins were 1.8, 3.3 and 7.2 points. The delegation went from seven Republicans and six Democrats to nine Democrats and four Republicans.

Donald Trump carried Michigan by 1.4 points in 2024, and the Senate vote was 8.4 points to the left of that; Benson ran 12.2 points to the left of it. El-Sayed drew 92 votes for every 100 Kamala Harris won, and Rogers 77 for every 100 of Trump’s. Bridge Michigan reported more than 4.8 million ballots on unofficial results, which appears to be a midterm record.³ In our count the Senate race drew 4,779,895 votes, 107% of the 2022 total and 84% of the 2024 presidential vote.

An Associated Press analysis cited by Bridge Michigan found that all 83 counties shifted toward the Democrats from 2024.³ The Detroit area, which casts 43% of the vote, moved furthest, 9.4 points, from D+7.1 to D+16.5. The smaller metro areas went from D+4.6 to D+12.5, and the Grand Rapids area came within a point of changing sides, from R+8.2 to R+0.8. The small towns and rural counties moved least, 6.9 points, and still voted Republican by 21.7.

Saginaw County is the largest of the five counties that voted for Trump in 2024 and for El-Sayed this year, and it did so narrowly: R+3.3 then, D+2.0 now, on 86,060 votes. A far bigger county moved more than twice as far and stopped just short. Macomb County, in the Detroit area, went from R+13.7 to R+1.8 on 419,030 votes. In the same metro area, Wayne County, the state’s largest, moved 14.4 points, to D+43.3, and Oakland County only 3.7.

Michigan had a Democratic governor, a Democratic Senate of 20 to 18 and a Republican House of 58 to 52. On unofficial results Democrats now hold all three: the Senate at 23 to 15 and the House at 63 to 47, which Bridge Michigan reported is the party’s largest House majority since 1964. Democrats ousted 10 House incumbents.^{4, 5} In the Senate, Theresa Brooks defeated Sen. Michael Webber in District 9 and Rep. Carol Glanville defeated Sen. Mark Huizenga in District 30; each Republican had won in 2022 by fewer than 800 votes.⁵ Sen. Darrin Camilleri will be majority leader and Rep. Ranjeev Puri of Canton speaker.^{4, 5} Neither majority reaches two-thirds of each house, which the constitution, as Ballotpedia reproduces it, requires to override a veto.⁶

The new majorities will not draw districts: Ballotpedia’s text of the constitution gives congressional and legislative maps to a 13-member independent citizens commission.⁶ Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist II won the secretary of state’s office, which Benson leaves for the governorship.^{7, 8} Voters also approved Proposal 2, which bars monopoly electric utilities, companies with more than $250,000 in state contracts and people close to them from giving to Michigan politicians, with more than 80% of the vote. The Mackinac Center for Public Policy and, separately, DTE Energy and Consumers Energy have sued in federal court to block it, naming the secretary of state among the defendants.^{8, 9}

“We have an historic trifecta that we’re excited about, because I’m going to Lansing not to play political games, but to get things done,” Benson said on November 4, FOX 2 Detroit reported.¹⁰ Bridge Michigan lists among her campaign proposals a healthcare affordability board, a change in how the state sets energy rates, a $5,000 caregiver tax credit and a $60,000 minimum teacher salary, and notes that she has not said how the costly items would be paid for.¹¹ Camilleri said voters had given Democrats a mandate on the cost of living, and Puri said the party would try to lower costs and grow the state’s population.^{4, 5}

Bridge Michigan reported that the vote kept Democrats in control of the state Supreme Court, the university boards and the State Board of Education.⁵ On that board, Democratic incumbents Judith Pritchett and Tiffany Tilley won new eight-year terms, keeping a 6-2 majority on the body that hires the state superintendent.¹² In Detroit, voters filled five of the seven seats on the board of the Detroit Public Schools Community District, the state’s largest. Chalkbeat reported that the vote was partly a referendum on Superintendent Nikolai Vitti’s nine-year tenure: two of the new members are his critics, though his most vocal critics were not elected.¹³

Republicans kept four of the seven U.S. House seats they held. The narrowest was the First District, where Jack Bergman won by 9.5 points; Tim Walberg, John Moolenaar and Lisa McClain won by more than 20. Rogers carried 69 of the state’s 83 counties. In the Legislature Republicans held several close House seats, including Speaker Matt Hall’s 42nd District, and in the Senate won the open 38th District in the Upper Peninsula and re-elected Sen. John Damoose in the 37th, according to the Honigman law firm’s post-election report.¹⁴ The state party chairman, Jim Runestad, said Michigan had gone better for Republicans than the nation; a party consultant called it the party’s worst performance in the state since its founding.¹⁵

Neither of Michigan’s Senate seats is on the 2028 ballot. The new House majority was elected for the two-year session that begins in January.⁴ Proposal 2 faces its two federal lawsuits.⁸ The Republican Party’s leadership is contested: its vice chair called for a new chair with a plan to win in 2028, and Bridge Michigan reported other names being floated, among them Hall.¹⁵