Iowa

Josh Turek won the Senate seat by 4.2 points over Republican Ashley Hinson, and Rob Sand won the governor’s office by 11.1 over Zach Lahn. Both offices had been Republican, and Sand is the first Democrat elected governor since 2006, Iowa Public Radio reported.¹ All four U.S. House seats had been Republican too. Democrats took three of them: Christina Bohannan beat Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks by 9.6 points, Sarah Trone Garriott beat Rep. Zach Nunn by 7.3, and Lindsay James won by 4.0. Chris McGowan kept the fourth for the Republicans. Democrat Nate Willems beat the Republican incumbent for attorney general by 1.9 points, and Republican Paul D. Pate was re-elected secretary of state.²

The Senate vote stood 17.5 points to the left of the 2024 presidential vote, and almost all of that came from one side. Turek drew 97 votes for every 100 Kamala Harris won in Iowa. Hinson drew 68 for every 100 of Trump’s. Turnout was above the last midterm’s: the votes counted come to 112% of the 2022 total and 83% of the 2024 presidential vote.

The move was nearly the same everywhere. It was 16.1 points in the Des Moines metro area, which went from D+1.6 to D+17.7, and 17.1 in the small towns and rural counties that cast 38% of the vote, which went from R+35.5 to R+18.4. The smaller metro areas moved furthest, 18.8 points, and changed sides, from R+12.7 to D+6.1. So did the Waterloo area, which ended at D+10.1. The Cedar Rapids area moved least, 14.5 points.

Of the 10 counties that voted for Trump and then for Turek, Scott County, in the Davenport metro area, is the largest. It went from R+3.9 to D+12.2 on 73,665 votes. Muscatine County made the widest swing, from R+14.9 to D+7.3. Pottawattamie County, in the Omaha area, traveled almost as far to reach a near tie, from R+20.0 to D+0.2, and Woodbury County, around Sioux City, moved 20.9 points and stayed Republican by 2.1. Polk County, the largest county, went from D+10.9 to D+26.6. No county moved toward the Republicans.

Republicans had held the governor’s office and both chambers. They kept the chambers, so Iowa has divided state government from January for the first time since 2016.^{3, 4} In our count Republicans hold 56 of 100 House seats, down from 67, and 32 of 50 Senate seats, where Democrats went from 17 to 18. Iowa Public Radio gave the same totals on November 9.⁴

The number that changed most is two-thirds. The constitution requires two-thirds of the members of each house to pass a bill over the governor’s objections, and the 11 House seats Republicans lost cost them that margin there, Iowa Public Radio reported. They are short of it in the Senate as well.^{4, 5} House Speaker Pat Grassley, whom House Republicans chose for another term, said of the incoming governor in a statement Iowa Public Radio reported on November 5: “Governor-elect Sand ran as a moderate. Now, we’ll find out if he was being genuine.”^{3, 4}

At a transition press conference on November 9, Sand said any lawmaker who supports a bill he signs would be invited to the signing. “Credit given where credit is due,” he said. He also said he intends to begin ending privatized Medicaid on his first day in office, and Iowa Public Radio reported his pledge to veto what he calls culture war bills. Lawmakers convene on January 11.⁴

Legislators do not draw the first draft of the maps. By statute the Legislative Services Agency delivers a plan of legislative and congressional districts to both chambers by April 1 of each year ending in one, and the chambers vote on it with no amendments except corrections. Under the constitution the state supreme court apportions the legislative districts if no plan is law by September 15 of that year.^{5, 6} The secretary of state’s office, which publishes the results, stays with Republican Paul D. Pate, who won another term.^{2, 7}

A constitutional amendment becomes part of the Iowa constitution when a majority of the electors voting on it ratify it.⁵ Constitutional Amendment 1 passed with 56.2% voting yes in our count, and the Associated Press called it. It requires two-thirds of the members elected to each house, 67 representatives and 34 senators, to pass a bill that raises the individual or corporate income tax rate or creates a new state tax on income. Taxes a local government imposes at its option are excluded. Until now such a bill needed a simple majority.⁷ Neither party holds two-thirds of either chamber after this election.

Republicans won again in two of the offices in our count that they held: Chris McGowan’s U.S. House seat, by 18.1 points, and the secretary of state’s office, by 6.3. They kept most of the map, with 84 of 99 counties voting for Hinson and the small towns and rural counties still Republican by 18.4 points. And they kept the legislature. In Bleeding Heartland’s count their Senate majority shrank by one seat, after they defeated a Democratic incumbent in District 35, and House Republicans unanimously re-elected their leadership team.^{2, 8} “Rob Sand’s victory does not give him a blank check,” the state party chair, Jeff Kaufmann, said in a written statement.¹

Chuck Grassley’s Senate seat will be on the ballot in 2028, in a state that voted R+13.3 for president in 2024 and D+4.2 in this year’s Senate race. The governor serves four years under the constitution, so the office Sand won will next be on the ballot in 2030.⁵ One legislative seat will be filled sooner. Trone Garriott will step down from the state Senate to go to Congress, and Democrats will have to defend her District 14, in Dallas County, in a special election, Bleeding Heartland reported.² The agency’s next plan is due by April 1, 2031, the next year ending in one.⁶

Our count has not called two statewide offices. Democrat Taylor Wettach leads for auditor by 0.6 points; his Republican opponent, Lt. Gov. Chris Cournoyer, conceded on November 4, Iowa Public Radio reported.⁹ Republican Roby Smith leads for treasurer by 0.6 points. Iowa Public Radio reported that the Associated Press had not called that race and that the Democrat, John Norwood, had not conceded; Bleeding Heartland’s figures have Smith ahead by 664,948 votes to 655,763.^{2, 10} One legislative result is being recounted. In House District 19, Republican Rep. Brent Siegrist finished 39 votes ahead of Democrat Ben Larson, and the recount begins in Pottawattamie County on November 16.¹¹