Florida

Republican Ashley Moody won the Senate race over Democrat Angie Nixon, 50.9% to 48.0%. Republican Byron Donalds won the open governor’s race over Democrat David Jolly by 1.3 points; the Associated Press called it on election night and Jolly acknowledged the loss.¹ Republicans kept all three Cabinet offices, the attorney general, the chief financial officer and the agriculture commissioner, each with about 51% of the vote.² No U.S. House seat that has been called changed hands. Republicans won 19 of the 20 they held, Democrats all eight of theirs, and the 27th District is not called in our count. Several were close: Democrat Darren Soto held the Ninth by 0.5 points in a district Trump carried by 17.5.

Measured against the 2024 presidential vote, the Senate race moved 10.2 points toward the Democrats, from R+13.1 to R+2.9. The House vote, all districts added together, went from R+15.8 to R+2.2. The Senate race drew 76% as many votes as the 2024 presidential election and 107% of the 2022 midterm’s. Nixon drew 85 votes for every 100 Kamala Harris won here; Moody drew 69 for every 100 of Trump’s.

The Miami metro area, which cast 25% of the 2024 vote, moved furthest: 15.2 points, from D+1.1 to D+16.3. The Orlando area went from D+1.2 to D+14.3, and the Tampa area from R+10.4 to R+0.7, nearly even. The move was smallest in the smaller metro areas, which cast 38% of the vote and went from R+24.2 to R+17.5, a move of 6.6 points. The small towns and rural counties went from R+47.8 to R+38.3.

Miami-Dade County is the largest of the seven counties that voted for Trump in 2024 and for Nixon this year. It went from R+11.4 to D+7.1 on 784,728 votes, a move of 18.6 points. Osceola County, in the Orlando area, swung further, 19.9 points, from R+1.5 to D+18.4. Broward County, also in the Miami area, went from D+17.0 to D+32.3, and Palm Beach County from D+0.8 to D+10.3. One county moved the other way: Sumter County went from R+37.6 to R+43.2.

Republicans kept the governorship and both chambers of the Legislature, so their trifecta continues, but in the House they lost the margin that let them act alone. Unofficial results compiled by the law firm Greenberg Traurig put the House at 70 Republicans and 50 Democrats, below the 80 seats that make two-thirds.² WUSF reported on November 6 that Democrats had flipped at least 16 seats and that the 70-50 split depended on a 17th going their way in a recount.³ The last uncalled race, House District 33 in Brevard County, went to a machine recount, and the Associated Press then declared Democrat Daniel McDow the winner over Republican Rep. Monique Miller, 36,428 votes to 36,142.^{4, 5} In the Senate Republicans hold 25 of 40 seats, also short of two-thirds, with one seat vacant.³

Under the constitution a vetoed bill becomes law only if each house passes it again by a two-thirds vote, and the Legislature can put a constitutional amendment on the ballot by a three-fifths vote of each house.⁶ House Republicans no longer reach either mark alone: the three-fifths line is 72 seats, WUSF reported, and they now need Democratic votes to override a veto or pass public records exemptions. Christine Hunschofsky, the House Democratic leader-designate, said on November 5: “It makes it important that on those really important bipartisan issues that we all come together and that our caucus also has a seat at the table.”³

The Legislature draws its own districts by joint resolution in the second year after each census, and the attorney general then asks the Florida Supreme Court to rule on them.⁶ Congressional maps pass as ordinary bills that the governor can veto, according to Ballotpedia.⁷ The secretary of state, who heads the Department of State and its Division of Elections, is appointed by the governor and confirmed by the Senate, so the next appointment is Donalds’s.⁸ In his victory remarks he spoke of the cost of living: “And my mission as Florida’s next governor is to make sure that they can build a great life here in the great state of Florida.”¹

A constitutional amendment in Florida takes effect only if at least sixty percent of those voting on it approve.⁶ Amendment 3, which raises the homestead exemption from about $50,000 to $150,000 in 2027 and $250,000 in 2028, passed with 62.0% in our count.⁹ Outgoing Gov. Ron DeSantis indicated that he would call a special session before his term ends to put it into effect.² Amendment 2, a property tax exemption for farm equipment and other agricultural property, won a majority, 58.2%, and still failed, under the 60% it needed. Amendment 1, which would have let lawmakers put more money into a reserve fund, drew 40.9%.¹⁰

Justice Carlos Muñiz, the only member of the Florida Supreme Court on the ballot, was retained with 57.72% of the vote, WLRN reported.¹¹ In St. Petersburg, former Gov. Charlie Crist defeated Mayor Ken Welch in a nonpartisan race between two registered Democrats.¹² Linda Cothiere won a runoff for a seat on the Miami-Dade County school board, one of three South Florida board seats decided in November runoffs.¹³ Seminole County, where Republicans had won every state legislative race within its borders in 2024, voted Democratic in all but one this year, Spectrum News 13 reported.¹⁴

Republicans won again in 23 of the seats they held, but several by very little. Ryan Elijah held the Seventh District by 0.5 points, Mario Diaz-Balart the 26th by 0.7 and Anna Paulina Luna the 13th by 0.8, in districts Trump had carried by 12.3, 18.0 and 13.1 points. Moody carried 54 of the state’s 67 counties, and Sumter County gave her a wider margin than it gave Trump. Donalds outspent Jolly about 10 to 1, Christian Casale of Suncoast Searchlight told WWSB.¹⁵

Ashley Moody’s seat will be on the ballot again in 2028; she won it this year by 2.9 points in a state that voted Republican by 13.1 for president in 2024. The governor is elected in even-numbered years that are not multiples of four, so Donalds’s office is next on the ballot in 2030. The Legislature must apportion the state again in the second year after the 2030 census.⁶ State Senate District 39 is vacant and will be filled in a special election.²

Our count has not called the 27th District, where Republican Maria Elvira Salazar leads Democrat Eliott Rodriguez by 0.4 points. The margin, 1,090 votes before the recount, was inside the 0.5% that triggers an automatic machine recount, WLRN reported.¹⁶ After the recount NBC News called the race for Salazar by 1,086 votes, NBC 6 reported on November 10.¹⁷