Arkansas

Republican Tom Cotton won the Senate race over Democrat Hallie Shoffner, 54.2% to 42.4%, and Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders was re-elected by 15.3 points over Democrat Fred Love.¹ Republicans kept all four U.S. House seats and won the races for lieutenant governor, secretary of state and land commissioner. Three more Republican officers, the attorney general, the auditor and the treasurer, were re-elected without opposition, Talk Business & Politics reported.¹ The one close federal race was in the Second Congressional District, where Republican French Hill won by 1.7 points in a district Donald Trump had carried by 15.5. Trump carried the state by 30.6.

Set against that presidential vote, the Senate race moved 18.8 points toward the Democrats, from R+30.6 to R+11.8. Shoffner drew 95 votes for every 100 Kamala Harris won here; Cotton drew 63 for every 100 of Trump’s. The votes cast came to 75% of the 2024 presidential total and 98% of the 2022 midterm’s. The Arkansas Advocate reported that Democrats gained support in every county in the Senate and governor’s races while losing both.²

The Fayetteville metro area moved furthest, 22.5 points, from R+19.5 to D+3.0; it cast 20% of the state’s 2024 vote. The Little Rock area, 26% of the vote, went from R+10.1 to D+7.5. The small towns and rural counties are the largest block, 38%, and they moved least: Republican by 30.5 points, down from 46.9. The Fort Smith area finished at R+26.7, down from R+44.6.

Washington County, in the Fayetteville metro area, voted for Trump by 6.7 points and for Shoffner by 17.5, a move of 24.2 points on 76,041 votes. It is the larger of the two counties that changed sides. Benton County, the bigger county in the same metro area, moved 20.9 points and still went Republican, by 6.0. Trump had won it by 27.0. Craighead County, in the Jonesboro area, moved nearly as far as Washington County and finished at R+13.6. No county moved toward the Republicans. The legislative gains followed the same map: the Advocate reported that Democrats picked up at least 10 state House seats, concentrated in Benton, Washington and Pulaski counties.²

Republicans keep the governorship and both chambers, and lose the House margin that let them pass spending bills alone. Most appropriation bills need a three-fourths vote, 75 of the 100 House members, KATV and the Arkansas Advocate reported.^{2, 3} Talk Business & Politics and MultiState count Republicans at 70 House seats and Democrats at 30, up from 20, and KATV reported that House Democrats have not had this leverage in more than a decade.^{3, 4, 5} Rep. David Ray, a Republican, said of the Democrats: “They should work in good faith with us and not just simply try to obstruct.”³

The Senate changed by one seat. Democrat Allison Grigsby Sweatman won the open District 13, and Republicans hold 28 of 35 seats in our count, which Talk Business describes as still a supermajority.⁴ When senators met on November 5 the Advocate counted 34 senators and senators-elect and one vacant seat; they chose Sen. Joshua Bryant, a Rogers Republican, as their next president pro tempore on a third round of voting.⁶ House Speaker Brian Evans, a Republican, said of his own chamber: “The makeup of the House will be a little different in 2027 as compared to what it was in January of 2025. That could change some of the dynamics of the session.”²

The offices that draw the maps stay Republican, with one new occupant. State legislative districts are drawn by the Board of Apportionment, which consists of the governor, the secretary of state and the attorney general.⁷ Congressional districts are enacted by the General Assembly, subject to the governor’s veto, which a majority in each chamber can override, by one redistricting group’s summary of state law.^{7, 8} Talk Business & Politics describes the secretary of state as the statewide official in charge of elections, and the office was open: Republican state Sen. Kim Hammer won it, succeeding Cole Jester, who ran for land commissioner and won that race.¹

Amending the Arkansas constitution takes a majority of voters in a statewide election, the University of Arkansas extension service’s voter guide says.⁹ Three proposed amendments were on the ballot and two passed: Issue 1, which states that only U.S. citizens can vote in Arkansas elections, with 69.1% yes, and Issue 2, which restates the right to keep and bear arms, with 70.8%.^{9, 10, 11, 12} Issue 3 failed, at 49.3% yes. It would have let cities and counties create economic development districts able to issue bonds, lend money and give publicly funded grants to businesses and developers.^{11, 13} “We’re not giving up. We’re just going to regroup and figure out another game plan,” said Randy Zook, the president of the Arkansas State Chamber of Commerce, who chairs the ballot question committee that backed it.¹⁴ Voters also approved Issue 4, up to $500 million in state bonds for water, waste disposal and pollution abatement, with 56.4% yes.^{10, 15}

Fort Smith’s seven-person race for mayor on November 3 produced no majority. City Director Christina Catsavis led with 35% and Daniel Williams was second with 26%, in Sebastian County’s final unofficial results, and the two meet in a runoff on December 1.¹⁶ In Pulaski County, Democrat Andrew Eberly defeated Republican Rep. Karilyn Brown in House District 67 and Democrat Cassandra Mayes won the open House District 71; Rep. David Ray was the only Republican there to buck the trend, Talk Business reported.⁴

Republicans kept all nine seats they held in our count. The narrowest was the Second Congressional District, by 1.7 points; after it came Cotton’s Senate seat, by 11.8. Of 75 counties, 66 voted Republican in the Senate race, though none moved toward the party from 2024, and Democrats did not win a statewide office or a U.S. House seat. A spokesperson for Sanders, Sam Dubke, put it this way to the Advocate: “Arkansas remains one of the most conservative states in the union, with wide Republican majorities in both chambers of the legislature.”²

John Boozman’s Senate seat will be on the ballot in 2028, in a state that voted Republican by 30.6 points for president in 2024 and by 11.8 in this year’s Senate race. Sanders won a second four-year term, so the governor’s office will not be on that ballot.¹ Nearer at hand, Fort Smith votes again on December 1, and Bryant’s election as Senate leader needs final approval after senators are sworn in in January.^{6, 16} The session that follows will be the first in a decade in which appropriation bills need Democratic votes in the House.²

The legislative seat counts come from news reports and MultiState, and they differ at the edges. KATV’s report said Democrats flipped at least nine House seats while quoting the Democratic leader at 30 seats; Talk Business reported ten seats gained and a 70 to 30 House, and MultiState a House that went from 80-20 to 70-30, counting a vacant seat Republicans last held.^{3, 4, 5}