Analysis · 2026 pollster scorecard
Trafalgar Group
Ranked 26 of 28 pollsters with 5 or more final polls. 29 general-election polls this cycle (number 20 of 251 pollsters by volume), 8 of them a final poll of a race. 90% of its polls this cycle were paid for by a party, a campaign or an aligned group.
- Final polls
- 8
- Average miss
- 7.3
- Leaned
- R+7.3
- Leader won
- 50%
- Vs. field
- +2.9
- Score
- +1.8
Leaned is over 8 polls of Democrat-versus-Republican races; leader won is over 8 polls in called races. Official counts as of Nov 13, 5:39 PM EST, with 22 of 506 races still being counted.
By race type
| Race type | Polls | Avg. miss | Leaned | Leader won | Vs. field | All its polls, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National House vote | 0 | — | — | — | — | 0 |
| Senate | 7 | 6.8 | R+6.8 | 43% | +2.5 | 24 |
| Governor | 1 | 10.6 | R+10.6 | 100% | +6.1 | 5 |
| House districts | 0 | — | — | — | — | 0 |
Every scored poll
| Contest | Poll | Result | Missed toward | Field miss | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa SenateOct 13 to Oct 15 · 1,094 likely voters · Republican sponsorJosh Turek 44.2, Ashley Hinson 45.9; count 50.5 to 46.3 | R+1.7 | D+4.2 | R+5.9 | 3.5 | Release |
| Maine SenateOct 21 to Oct 23 · 1,077 likely voters · Republican sponsorTroy Jackson 46.5, Susan Collins 47; count 53.0 to 47.0 | R+0.5 | D+6.1 | R+6.6 | 3.0 | Release |
| Michigan SenateOct 31 to Nov 1 · 1,087 likely voters · Republican sponsorAbdul El-Sayed 47.1, Mike Rogers 45.9; count 52.5 to 45.5 | D+1.2 | D+7.0 | R+5.8 | 2.6 | Release |
| Minnesota SenateOct 13 to Oct 15 · 1,079 likely voters · Republican sponsorPeggy Flanagan 48.1, Michele Tafoya 44.6; count 53.7 to 43.5 | D+3.5 | D+10.2 | R+6.7 | 5.3 | Release |
| Ohio SenateOct 31 to Nov 1 · 1,092 likely voters · Republican sponsorSherrod Brown 46.6, Jon Husted 45.1; count 50.0 to 45.1 | D+1.5 | D+4.8 | R+3.4 | 2.5 | Release |
| South Carolina SenateOct 31 to Nov 1 · 1,091 likely voters · Republican sponsorAnnie Andrews 45.5, Darline Graham 47.5; count 51.1 to 46.6 | R+2.0 | D+4.5 | R+6.5 | 4.7 | Release |
| Texas SenateOct 31 to Nov 1 · 1,089 likely voters · Republican sponsorJames Talarico 47.5, Ken Paxton 48.1; count 55.1 to 43.0 | R+0.6 | D+12.1 | R+12.7 | 8.6 | Release |
| South Carolina governorOct 31 to Nov 1 · 1,091 likely voters · Republican sponsorJermaine Johnson 39.1, Alan Wilson 54.1; count 47.1 to 51.6 | R+15.0 | R+4.5 | R+10.6 | 4.4 | Release |
Releases: Iowa Senate · Maine Senate · Michigan Senate · Minnesota Senate · Ohio Senate · South Carolina Senate · Texas Senate · South Carolina governor
From the New York Times table, every poll on this page.
8 of these 8 polls had a partisan sponsor. They are scored the same way.
A poll’s margin is between the two candidates who finished first and second, in points; the result is the official count as of Nov 13, 5:39 PM EST. “Missed toward” names the party the poll favored compared with the result. How the score works is on the scorecard. Earlier elections and every 2026 poll: Trafalgar Group on the pollsters page.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.