Analysis · 2026 pollster scorecard
The Political Matrix/The Listener Group
Scored, not ranked: 2 final polls, and a rank takes 5. 2 general-election polls this cycle (number 182 of 251 pollsters by volume), 2 of them a final poll of a race.
- Final polls
- 2
- Average miss
- 1.7
- Leaned
- R+1.7
- Leader won
- 100%
- Vs. field
- −1.6
- Score
- −0.4
Leaned is over 2 polls of Democrat-versus-Republican races; leader won is over 2 polls in called races. Official counts as of Nov 13, 5:39 PM EST, with 22 of 506 races still being counted.
By race type
| Race type | Polls | Avg. miss | Leaned | Leader won | Vs. field | All its polls, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National House vote | 0 | — | — | — | — | 0 |
| Senate | 1 | 3.1 | R+3.1 | 100% | +0.1 | 1 |
| Governor | 1 | 0.2 | R+0.2 | 100% | −3.2 | 1 |
| House districts | 0 | — | — | — | — | 0 |
Every scored poll
| Contest | Poll | Result | Missed toward | Field miss | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida SenateOct 26 to Oct 28 · 500 likely votersAngie Nixon 35.8, Ashley Moody 41.8; count 48.0 to 50.9 | R+6.0 | R+2.9 | R+3.1 | 3.1 | Release |
| Florida governorOct 26 to Oct 28 · 500 likely votersDavid Jolly 38.8, Byron Donalds 40.3; count 48.7 to 50.0 | R+1.5 | R+1.3 | R+0.2 | 3.4 | Release |
Releases: Florida Senate · Florida governor
From the New York Times table, every poll on this page.
A poll’s margin is between the two candidates who finished first and second, in points; the result is the official count as of Nov 13, 5:39 PM EST. “Missed toward” names the party the poll favored compared with the result. How the score works is on the scorecard. Earlier elections and every 2026 poll: The Political Matrix/The Listener Group on the pollsters page.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.