Analysis · 2026 pollster scorecard
The New York Times/Siena College
Ranked 3 of 28 pollsters with 5 or more final polls. 64 general-election polls this cycle (number 7 of 251 pollsters by volume), 28 of them a final poll of a race.
- Final polls
- 28
- Average miss
- 3.4
- Leaned
- R+2.4
- Leader won
- 92%
- Vs. field
- −1.3
- Score
- −1.1
Leaned is over 26 polls of Democrat-versus-Republican races; leader won is over 25 polls in called races. Official counts as of Nov 13, 5:39 PM EST, with 22 of 506 races still being counted; 4 of its 28 polls are of a count that is not final.
By race type
| Race type | Polls | Avg. miss | Leaned | Leader won | Vs. field | All its polls, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National House vote | 1 | 3.3 | R+3.3 | 100% | −1.8 | 6 |
| Senate | 11 | 2.5 | R+0.9 | 90% | −1.7 | 25 |
| Governor | 11 | 3.4 | R+2.1 | 100% | −1.3 | 26 |
| House districts | 5 | 5.4 | R+6.5 | 75% | −0.1 | 7 |
Its final margins sat 4.3 points from the other pollsters’ average where sampling predicts 4.0 (19 polls): a ratio of 1.06. Under 1 is closer to the pack than chance allows.
Every scored poll
| Contest | Poll | Result | Missed toward | Field miss | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National House voteOct 12 to Oct 19 · 3,494 likely voters · count not finalDemocrats 51.73, Republicans 41.22; count 56.2 to 42.3 | D+10.5 | D+13.8 | R+3.3 | 5.2 | Release |
| Alaska SenateOct 23 to Oct 30 · 610 likely voters · count not finalMary Peltola 47.6, Dan Sullivan 46.2; count 49.2 to 47.0 | D+1.4 | D+2.3 | R+0.9 | 1.4 | Release |
| Florida SenateOct 19 to Oct 25 · 813 likely votersAngie Nixon 44.32, Ashley Moody 50.35; count 48.0 to 50.9 | R+6.0 | R+2.9 | R+3.2 | 3.1 | Release |
| Iowa SenateOct 26 to Nov 1 · 705 likely votersJosh Turek 47.6, Ashley Hinson 46.9; count 50.5 to 46.3 | D+0.7 | D+4.2 | R+3.5 | 3.8 | Release |
| Kansas SenateOct 27 to Nov 1 · 736 likely votersAdam Hamilton 49, Roger Marshall 43.9; count 51.0 to 46.0 | D+5.1 | D+5.1 | Even | 3.3 | Release |
| Maine SenateOct 27 to Nov 1 · 714 likely votersTroy Jackson 50.9, Susan Collins 45; count 53.0 to 47.0 | D+5.9 | D+6.1 | R+0.2 | 3.5 | Release |
| Michigan SenateOct 23 to Nov 1 · 1,011 likely votersAbdul El-Sayed 52.6, Mike Rogers 41.6; count 52.5 to 45.5 | D+11.0 | D+7.0 | D+4.0 | 2.7 | Release |
| Minnesota SenateOct 19 to Oct 26 · 752 likely votersPeggy Flanagan 54.21, Michele Tafoya 40.31; count 53.7 to 43.5 | D+13.9 | D+10.2 | D+3.7 | 5.7 | Release |
| Nebraska SenateOct 23 to Oct 29 · 809 likely votersPete Ricketts 48.7, Dan Osborn 43.01; count 50.1 to 43.9 | Ricketts +5.7 | Ricketts +6.2 | 0.5 | 6.2 | Release |
| Ohio SenateOct 26 to Nov 1 · 717 likely votersSherrod Brown 49.3, Jon Husted 43.7; count 50.0 to 45.1 | D+5.6 | D+4.8 | D+0.8 | 2.6 | Release |
| South Carolina SenateOct 19 to Oct 26 · 707 likely votersAnnie Andrews 47.76, Darline Graham 48.47; count 51.1 to 46.6 | R+0.7 | D+4.5 | R+5.2 | 4.8 | Release |
| Texas SenateOct 27 to Nov 1 · 1,215 likely votersJames Talarico 50.2, Ken Paxton 43.1; count 55.1 to 43.0 | D+7.1 | D+12.1 | R+5.0 | 8.9 | Release |
| Alaska governorOct 23 to Oct 30 · 610 likely voters · count not finalJonathan S. "JKT" Kreiss-Tomkins 41.7, Bernadette M. Wilson 25; count 50.2 to 28.8 | D+16.7 | D+21.4 | R+4.7 | 2.9 | Release |
| Florida governorOct 19 to Oct 25 · 813 likely votersDavid Jolly 44.43, Byron Donalds 48.36; count 48.7 to 50.0 | R+3.9 | R+1.3 | R+2.6 | 3.2 | Release |
| Iowa governorOct 26 to Nov 1 · 705 likely votersRob Sand 51.3, Zach Lahn 43; count 55.5 to 44.4 | D+8.3 | D+11.1 | R+2.8 | 4.4 | Release |
| Kansas governorOct 27 to Nov 1 · 736 likely votersCindy Holscher 47.8, Ty Masterson 47.4; count 50.4 to 49.6 | D+0.4 | D+0.7 | R+0.3 | 3.7 | Release |
| Maine governorOct 27 to Nov 1 · 714 likely votersHannah Pingree 49.4, Bobby Charles 36.6; count 54.4 to 37.5 | D+12.8 | D+16.9 | R+4.1 | 7.0 | Release |
| Michigan governorOct 23 to Nov 1 · 1,011 likely votersJocelyn Benson 51.8, John James 39.4; count 54.5 to 43.7 | D+12.4 | D+10.8 | D+1.6 | 2.9 | Release |
| Minnesota governorOct 19 to Oct 26 · 752 likely votersAmy Klobuchar 55.92, Lisa Demuth 37.88; count 55.5 to 42.6 | D+18.0 | D+12.9 | D+5.2 | 2.5 | Release |
| Nebraska governorOct 23 to Oct 29 · 809 likely votersLynne Walz 39.57, Jim Pillen 53.09; count 42.5 to 50.5 | R+13.5 | R+8.0 | R+5.6 | 5.4 | Release |
| Ohio governorOct 26 to Nov 1 · 717 likely votersAmy Acton 48.8, Vivek Ramaswamy 43.2; count 52.3 to 44.4 | D+5.6 | D+7.9 | R+2.3 | 4.4 | Release |
| South Carolina governorOct 19 to Oct 26 · 707 likely votersJermaine Johnson 44.24, Alan Wilson 50.97; count 47.1 to 51.6 | R+6.7 | R+4.5 | R+2.3 | 5.6 | Release |
| Texas governorOct 27 to Nov 1 · 1,215 likely votersGina Hinojosa 48.1, Greg Abbott 46.6; count 52.8 to 45.7 | D+1.5 | D+7.1 | R+5.6 | 9.2 | Release |
| Alaska at largeOct 23 to Oct 30 · 610 likely voters · count not finalNick Begich III 44, Bill Hill 37.2; count 48.6 to 41.2 | Begich +6.8 | Begich +7.4 | 0.6 | 4.5 | Release |
| Pennsylvania 1st DistrictOct 16 to Oct 22 · 400 likely votersBob Harvie 48.26, Brian Fitzpatrick 45.83; count 52.9 to 47.1 | D+2.4 | D+5.7 | R+3.3 | 5.6† | Releasefor The Philadelphia Inquirer |
| Pennsylvania 7th DistrictOct 16 to Oct 22 · 401 likely votersBob Brooks 49.25, Ryan Mackenzie 44.15; count 56.2 to 43.8 | D+5.1 | D+12.4 | R+7.3 | 6.9 | Releasefor The Philadelphia Inquirer |
| Pennsylvania 8th DistrictOct 16 to Oct 22 · 402 likely votersPaige Cognetti 50.53, Rob Bresnahan 46.48; count 54.5 to 45.5 | D+4.0 | D+9.0 | R+4.9 | 5.0 | Releasefor The Philadelphia Inquirer |
| Pennsylvania 10th DistrictOct 16 to Oct 22 · 404 likely votersJanelle Stelson 47.65, Scott Perry 48.03; count 55.2 to 44.8 | R+0.4 | D+10.4 | R+10.8 | 5.6† | Releasefor The Philadelphia Inquirer |
Releases: National House vote · Alaska Senate · Florida Senate · Iowa Senate · Kansas Senate · Maine Senate · Michigan Senate · Minnesota Senate · Nebraska Senate · Ohio Senate · South Carolina Senate · Texas Senate · Alaska governor · Florida governor · Iowa governor · Kansas governor · Maine governor · Michigan governor · Minnesota governor · Nebraska governor · Ohio governor · South Carolina governor · Texas governor · Alaska at large · Pennsylvania 1st District · Pennsylvania 7th District · Pennsylvania 8th District · Pennsylvania 10th District
From the New York Times table, every poll on this page.
† Fewer than two other pollsters released a final poll of this race, so the field miss is the average for that race type.
A poll’s margin is between the two candidates who finished first and second, in points; the result is the official count as of Nov 13, 5:39 PM EST. “Missed toward” names the party the poll favored compared with the result. How the score works is on the scorecard. Earlier elections and every 2026 poll: The New York Times/Siena College on the pollsters page.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.