Analysis · 2026 pollster scorecard
Tarrance Group
Scored, not ranked: 1 final poll, and a rank takes 5. 3 general-election polls this cycle (number 147 of 251 pollsters by volume), 1 of them a final poll of a race. 67% of its polls this cycle were paid for by a party, a campaign or an aligned group.
- Final polls
- 1
- Average miss
- 16.5
- Leaned
- R+16.5
- Leader won
- 100%
- Vs. field
- +3.5
- Score
- +0.6
Leaned is over 1 polls of Democrat-versus-Republican races; leader won is over 1 polls in called races. Official counts as of Nov 13, 5:39 PM EST, with 22 of 506 races still being counted.
By race type
| Race type | Polls | Avg. miss | Leaned | Leader won | Vs. field | All its polls, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National House vote | 0 | — | — | — | — | 0 |
| Senate | 0 | — | — | — | — | 0 |
| Governor | 0 | — | — | — | — | 2 |
| House districts | 1 | 16.5 | R+16.5 | 100% | +3.5 | 1 |
Every scored poll
| Contest | Poll | Result | Missed toward | Field miss | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| California 48th DistrictOct 17 to Oct 20 · 410 likely voters · Republican sponsorMarni von Wilpert 47, Jim Desmond 44; count 59.7 to 40.3 | D+3.0 | D+19.5 | R+16.5 | 13.0 | ReleaseFrom the New York Times table |
Releases: California 48th District
1 of these 1 polls had a partisan sponsor. They are scored the same way.
A poll’s margin is between the two candidates who finished first and second, in points; the result is the official count as of Nov 13, 5:39 PM EST. “Missed toward” names the party the poll favored compared with the result. How the score works is on the scorecard. Earlier elections and every 2026 poll: Tarrance Group on the pollsters page.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.