Analysis · 2026 pollster scorecard
Rasmussen Reports
Ranked 21 of 28 pollsters with 5 or more final polls. 23 general-election polls this cycle (number 31 of 251 pollsters by volume), 16 of them a final poll of a race.
- Final polls
- 16
- Average miss
- 5.2
- Leaned
- R+5.2
- Leader won
- 80%
- Vs. field
- +0.9
- Score
- +0.7
Leaned is over 16 polls of Democrat-versus-Republican races; leader won is over 15 polls in called races. Official counts as of Nov 13, 5:39 PM EST, with 22 of 506 races still being counted; 2 of its 16 polls are of a count that is not final.
By race type
| Race type | Polls | Avg. miss | Leaned | Leader won | Vs. field | All its polls, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National House vote | 1 | 7.8 | R+7.8 | 100% | +2.8 | 5 |
| Senate | 9 | 5.5 | R+5.5 | 63% | +1.4 | 11 |
| Governor | 6 | 4.3 | R+4.3 | 100% | −0.1 | 7 |
| House districts | 0 | — | — | — | — | 0 |
Its final margins sat 2.3 points from the other pollsters’ average where sampling predicts 3.4 (10 polls): a ratio of 0.68. Under 1 is closer to the pack than chance allows.
Every scored poll
| Contest | Poll | Result | Missed toward | Field miss | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National House voteOct 22 to Oct 28 · 1,442 likely voters · count not finalDemocrats 49, Republicans 43; count 56.2 to 42.3 | D+6.0 | D+13.8 | R+7.8 | 5.0 | Release |
| Alaska SenateOct 12 to Oct 15 · 775 likely voters · count not finalMary Peltola 44, Dan Sullivan 42; count 49.2 to 47.0 | D+2.0 | D+2.3 | R+0.3 | 1.4 | Release |
| Iowa SenateOct 27 to Oct 31 · 901 likely votersJosh Turek 46, Ashley Hinson 47; count 50.5 to 46.3 | R+1.0 | D+4.2 | R+5.2 | 3.6 | Release |
| Maine SenateOct 27 to Nov 2 · 896 likely votersTroy Jackson 49, Susan Collins 46; count 53.0 to 47.0 | D+3.0 | D+6.1 | R+3.1 | 3.2 | Release |
| Michigan SenateOct 28 to Oct 29 · 745 likely votersAbdul El-Sayed 49, Mike Rogers 44; count 52.5 to 45.5 | D+5.0 | D+7.0 | R+2.0 | 2.8 | Release |
| Minnesota SenateOct 20 to Oct 21 · 1,182 likely votersPeggy Flanagan 48, Michele Tafoya 45; count 53.7 to 43.5 | D+3.0 | D+10.2 | R+7.2 | 5.2 | Release |
| New Hampshire SenateOct 20 to Oct 23 · 970 likely votersChris Pappas 50, John E. Sununu 44; count 55.9 to 42.1 | D+6.0 | D+13.8 | R+7.8 | 5.7 | Release |
| Ohio SenateOct 27 to Oct 31 · 1,119 likely votersSherrod Brown 46, Jon Husted 46; count 50.0 to 45.1 | Even | D+4.8 | R+4.8 | 2.4 | Release |
| South Carolina SenateOct 27 to Oct 31 · 1,028 likely votersAnnie Andrews 47, Darline Graham 50; count 51.1 to 46.6 | R+3.0 | D+4.5 | R+7.5 | 4.6 | Release |
| Texas SenateOct 20 to Oct 21 · 965 likely votersJames Talarico 45, Ken Paxton 45; count 55.1 to 43.0 | Even | D+12.1 | R+12.1 | 8.6 | Release |
| Iowa governorOct 27 to Oct 31 · 901 likely votersRob Sand 50, Zach Lahn 45; count 55.5 to 44.4 | D+5.0 | D+11.1 | R+6.1 | 3.9 | Release |
| Maine governorOct 27 to Nov 2 · 896 likely votersHannah Pingree 50, Bobby Charles 39; count 54.4 to 37.5 | D+11.0 | D+16.9 | R+5.9 | 6.9 | Release |
| Michigan governorOct 28 to Oct 29 · 745 likely votersJocelyn Benson 50, John James 40; count 54.5 to 43.7 | D+10.0 | D+10.8 | R+0.8 | 3.0 | Release |
| New Hampshire governorOct 20 to Oct 23 · 970 likely votersCinde Warmington 42, Kelly Ayotte 52; count 47.0 to 51.4 | R+10.0 | R+4.4 | R+5.6 | 3.1 | Release |
| Ohio governorOct 27 to Oct 31 · 1,119 likely votersAmy Acton 49, Vivek Ramaswamy 45; count 52.3 to 44.4 | D+4.0 | D+7.9 | R+3.9 | 4.3 | Release |
| South Carolina governorOct 27 to Oct 31 · 1,028 likely votersJermaine Johnson 43, Alan Wilson 51; count 47.1 to 51.6 | R+8.0 | R+4.5 | R+3.5 | 5.4 | Release |
Releases: National House vote · Alaska Senate · Iowa Senate · Maine Senate · Michigan Senate · Minnesota Senate · New Hampshire Senate · Ohio Senate · South Carolina Senate · Texas Senate · Iowa governor · Maine governor · Michigan governor · New Hampshire governor · Ohio governor · South Carolina governor
Entered from the pollster's release, every poll on this page.
A poll’s margin is between the two candidates who finished first and second, in points; the result is the official count as of Nov 13, 5:39 PM EST. “Missed toward” names the party the poll favored compared with the result. How the score works is on the scorecard. Earlier elections and every 2026 poll: Rasmussen Reports on the pollsters page.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.