OK-5 House polls
Jena Nelson (D) vs Stephanie Bice (R). The polls in the forecast's poll average, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.
Poll averageR+7.0the average the forecast uses · same figure as the race page
Polls11 recorded poll · 1 in the poll average
Latest field dateSep 20Eligible polls: latest poll: 2026-09-20 (14 days old)
EditionOct 4the poll average and its weights as of this edition
The polls and the poll average
hover, tap or Tab to any poll- poll in the average · area is its weight in it
- not in the average · shown, not counted
- poll average, day by day · smoothed over four weeks, ending on today's figure
- 30 days before this edition
The line is the poll average day by day, smoothed over four weeks, from the first poll it counts. A published day keeps its figure. Other days were worked out later, from the polls fielded by that day. Hover for each day's figure.
Every poll on file · 1
newest first1 in the poll average
| Pollster | Fielded | Sample | Result | Added | Weight | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ●GBAOGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 500 LV | R+5.0Stephanie Bice 48Jena Nelson 43 | 0.52 | Poll release |
Archive source date 2026-10-04. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.